The 2022 World Cup semifinal one is here. After a thrilling round of 16 and quarterfinals, we’re into the business end of the tournament with four teams remaining.
There’s plenty of star power, great matchups and top players who all have their eyes set on hoisting the trophy on Dec. 18.
The action begins Tuesday with Croatia and Argentina kicking off, then defending champions France take on underdogs Morocco a day later.
Tuesday
Croatia vs. Argentina
Lusail Stadium; 2 p.m. ET
Have they met recently? This is their third meeting at a World Cup, but first in the knockouts. Argentina won the first meeting 1-0 in 1998’s group stage, with Croatia winning 3-0 in 2018.
Odds to win World Cup (via Caesars Sportsbook): Argentina +155; Croatia +650.
Argentina are -150 to advance from the semifinal, while Croatia are +450.
Why Croatia will reach the final
Coach Zlatko Dalic spoke a lot in the aftermath of Croatia’s quarterfinal victory over Brazil on penalties about their “fighting spirit,” and even though it’s not something you can quantify with statistics or data, it will be the one thing that worries Argentina most.
Also Read: England Knocked out of World Cup Quarterfinals for the Seventh Time
Croatia have a fantastic ability to stay in a game. Their midfield three of Luka Modric, Mateo Kovacic and Marcelo Brozovic have the technical ability on the ball to control large spells and when they have to defend, they are dogged and organised.
Argentina, even with Lionel Messi, will find it very hard to break them down and the longer the game stays even, Croatia will only grow in belief. Eight of their past nine knockout matches at major tournaments have gone to extra time, beating both Japan and Brazil on penalties during their run in Qatar. They also won two shootouts — against Denmark and Russia — on their way to the final in 2018.
Croatia will hope to disrupt Argentina and Messi long enough for panic to set in and then look to take advantage. Their record at the past two World Cups suggests it’s a well-formulated plan. If they can knock out Brazil, they can certainly do the same to Argentina.
Why Croatia won’t reach the final
The most obvious reason for Argentina reaching the final over Croatia is that, simply put, they have better players. There’s a reason that Argentina and Messi arrived in Qatar aiming to lift the trophy while Croatia and Modric turned up hoping to make it through the group stages — expectation based purely on the depth of talent each coach has available.
Aside from putting four past Canada in the groups, Croatia have found the net just twice in their other four games and scored in the 116th minute against Brazil with their only shot on target — and even that needed a significant deflection.
They had a marvellous run to the final in 2018, but once there, the final hurdle against France felt like one game too far. They conceded four goals in 65 minutes. It was hardly a surprise given they’d played the equivalent of an extra game in the knockouts after going for 120 minutes in the round of 16, quarterfinal and semifinal.
After extra time and penalties against Japan and Brazil, there is a danger Croatia might run out of steam against Argentina, particularly when coach Lionel Scaloni can turn to his bench and throw on a number of world-class players.
Why Argentina will reach the final
Maybe it’s nothing more, or less, than fate. This is almost certainly Lionel Messi’s last shot at winning a World Cup, and he has dragged Argentina to this stage by his brilliance and force of personality. He isn’t the player he was in his prime, with that electric burst of pace, but at 35, he has shown he is still capable of making the crucial difference.
His goals against Mexico and Australia set Argentina on their way to big wins, while his reverse pass for Nahuel Molina to score in the quarterfinal against Netherlands was one of the moments of this World Cup.
Messi will have to find something magical again to overcome a Croatia team that manages tournament football better than most. The 2018 World Cup finalists are a tough, proud team with Modric as influential as Messi. But there does feel a sense of destiny about Argentina this time around.
Why Argentina won’t reach the final
Take Messi out of the team and Argentina are a limited side. For a country that has produced some incredible players, there is a real shortage of world-class support for Messi. Julian Alvarez, Enzo Fernandez and Alexis Mac Allister have all had a good tournament in Qatar, but they are not world beaters. How Argentina could use one of their former great strikers, such as Sergio Aguero or Gabriel Batistuta right now.
Argentina’s lack of pace and creativity hasn’t been a major issue so far, but as the tournament approaches its decisive stage, the key details matter and they will need to find something extra to beat Croatia.
Lionel Scaloni’s team need to find a way to stop Modric dominating the game with his movement of the ball in midfield, but that is the same challenge for all of Croatia’s opponents and few are able to pull it off. This game will come down to whether Argentina can stop Modric, but also how they can threaten Croatia in ways that don’t involve Messi.
One Croatia player to watch: Luka Modric
Modric is the obvious choice because of his status and experience, but RB Leipzig centre-back Josko Gvardiol, 20, has been one of the best young players at the World Cup and Croatia will need him to be in top form again.
Goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic was the star against Brazil, and you would think he’s going to have to make at least a couple of saves against Argentina if there’s going to be another shock result.
If Croatia want to hurt Argentina, Celtic right-back Josip Juranovic is a good outlet. Argentina haven’t settled on their full-backs and Juranovic caused Brazil problems with his runs down the right flank.
One Argentina player to watch: Emiliano Martinez
The Argentina goalkeeper has had his critics in this tournament, but he rose to the occasion during the penalty shootout win against Netherlands. And because no team takes games to penalties as often, and successfully, as Croatia, Argentina may need the Aston Villa No. 1 to produce heroics again.
But Martinez’s role goes beyond his ability with penalties. He is a commanding presence and one who will try to dominate the penalty area, so Argentina at least know they have a keeper they can rely on.