The survey of 600 likely voters was conducted by the Glengariff Group for the Detroit Regional Chamber from April 28 to May 1. It has a margin of error of ±4 percentage points.

Rogers led U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens 43.8% to 41.5%. He led state Sen. Mallory McMorrow 42.8% to 40.7%. Against Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, Rogers led 44.7% to 39.8%. All three races fall within or near the poll’s margin of error.

Open Seat Follows Peters Retirement

Democrats have held the seat for nearly 50 years. Sen. Carl Levin occupied it for decades before Sen. Gary Peters. Peters announced in 2025 that he would not seek a third term. The decision created one of the most competitive Senate races in the country for the 2026 midterms.

Rogers, a former U.S. representative from Livingston County, is the leading Republican candidate. He ran for Senate in 2024 and lost to Democrat Elissa Slotkin by less than one percentage point. No other major Republican has entered the race.

On the Democratic side, Stevens, McMorrow, and El-Sayed are the top contenders in the August 2026 primary. The poll measured only these three against Rogers.

Also Read: Mother of Michigan School Shooter Found Guilty of Manslaughter

Pollster Richard Czuba of the Glengariff Group said a notable portion of voters remained undecided in each matchup, between 15% and 16.5%. When undecided voters were removed, several matchups moved closer to ties.

Trump’s Wins in Michigan Change Calculations

President Donald Trump won Michigan in the 2024 presidential election, repeating his 2016 victory in the state. Those results have strengthened Republican confidence in targeting the Senate seat.

Republicans currently hold a 53-45 majority in the U.S. Senate. Flipping Michigan would add to that edge during the 2026 midterms.

The poll showed party identification among likely voters was nearly even: 41% Democrat, 40% Republican, and 16% independent.

Rogers has positioned himself as a candidate who can appeal to independents and moderate voters in the state’s suburbs and rural areas. Democrats argue that a strong nominee with name recognition and fundraising ability can defend the seat.

Also Read: Americans Sacrifice Millions of Their Money to Save Republican From Losing His Seat

Why This Matters for Senate Control

This polling comes early in the cycle but signals that Michigan will rank among the top battleground states in 2026. Republicans view the seat as one of their best chances to expand their Senate majority under President Trump. Democrats must defend a long-held seat in a state that has supported Trump twice in recent presidential races.

The narrow margins show the contest remains competitive. Both parties are expected to direct significant resources to Michigan. Fundraising, advertising, and organizing efforts will likely increase in the coming months.

The race will test whether recent Republican gains at the presidential level can translate into success in a Senate contest. For Democrats, holding the seat would represent a key defense in the Midwest. For Republicans, a win would mark the first time in decades that they hold Michigan’s U.S. Senate seat.