The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has forecast varying weather conditions across the country from September 1 to 7, 2026, with showers, thunderstorms, cloudy conditions, and sunny intervals expected in different areas.
In a forecast dated August 31, 2026, the Kenya Met said morning showers are expected in parts of the Coast, while afternoon showers and thunderstorms may occur in parts of western Kenya, the Rift Valley, and central Kenya.
Kenya Met Forecasts Rain in 9 Counties
According to the Kenya Met forecast, most parts of Kenya are expected to remain generally dry, but rainfall is likely in some parts of Nairobi, Kiambu, Nyandarua, Meru, Nyeri, Murang’a, Laikipia, Nakuru and Kilifi during the forecast period.
“Most parts of the country are expected to be generally dry. However, some parts of Nairobi, Kiambu, Nyandarua, Meru, Nyeri, Murang’a, Laikipia, Nakuru and Kilifi Counties are likely to receive rainfall,” Kenya Met listed.
Kenya Met further explained that morning showers are expected in a few parts of Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Tana River and Lamu Counties.
In addition, afternoon showers are likely to occur in a few parts of Taita Taveta, Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu, Kirinyaga, Embu, Tharaka-Nithi, Nyeri, Meru, Nyandarua, Murang’a, Laikipia and Garissa Counties.
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Occasional cool and cloudy conditions are expected in parts of Embu, Kiambu, Kirinyaga, Laikipia, Meru, Murang’a, Nairobi, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Tharaka-Nithi, Nakuru, Machakos, Kajiado and Taita/Taveta during the first half of the forecast period.
“Occasional morning cloudiness may occur in a few parts of Embu, Kiambu, Kirinyaga, Laikipia, Meru, Murang’a, Nairobi, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Tharaka-Nithi, Nakuru, Machakos, Kajiado, Taita/Taveta Counties in the first half of the forecast period.”
Hot Days and Cold Nights in Several Counties
The weatherman said daytime average temperatures above 30°C are expected in parts of Kilifi, Tana River, Lamu, Garissa, Wajir, Isiolo, Marsabit, Kakamega, Bungoma, Busia and Turkana.
Further, the forecast expects the highest daytime temperatures across parts of the Coast and the northeastern and western regions.
At night, minimum average temperatures are expected to fall below 10°C in some parts of Meru, Tharaka-Nithi, Kirinyaga, Murang’a and Embu.
Other areas likely to experience night-time temperatures below 10°C include Nyeri, Nyandarua, Laikipia, Nakuru and Narok.
Heavy October–December Rains Across Most Counties as El Niño Intensifies
Kenya is expected to experience above-average rainfall across much of the country during the October–November–December (OND) 2026 short-rains season, according to the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) outlook issued on August 26, 2026.
The forecast indicates above-average rainfall in more than 40 counties, including Nairobi, Kiambu, Nakuru, Mombasa, Kisumu, Kakamega, Meru, Machakos, Garissa, Wajir and Mandera. Turkana and parts of West Pokot, Samburu and Marsabit are expected to receive near-average to above-average rainfall.
Also Read: Kenya Met Issues New October–December Rainfall Forecast as El Niño Intensifies
The rainfall is projected to be fairly to well distributed across several parts of the country, although Turkana and Samburu are expected to have poor to fair distribution. KMSA also warns of prolonged wet spells and occasional isolated storms during the season.
In Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Siaya, Busia, Baringo, Nakuru, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu and several other western counties, the rains are expected to continue from September into January.
Nairobi, Kiambu, Meru, Embu, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Nyandarua, Laikipia and Tharaka-Nithi are expected to receive the onset between the second and third weeks of October, with rains continuing into January.
Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado, Taita-Taveta and inland parts of Tana River are expected to see the rains begin between the third and fourth weeks of October.
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