South Sudan President Salva Kiir on Wednesday, September 18, met Djibouti African Union (AU) Chairman Candidate and Foreign Affairs Minister Ismail Omar Guelleh.
This meeting has sparked a wave of speculation about where Kiir’s loyalties truly lie in the race for the AU top seat.
As the current chairman of the East African Community (EAC), Kiir had previously voiced his support for Azimio leader Raila Odinga’s candidacy for the same position.
However, could this meeting signal a potential shift in his support toward Djibouti’s bid? Is Raila’s bid still secure?
Or is it simply a case of diplomatic prudence, with Kiir offering a fair hearing to all East African contenders?
Also Read: 8 Reasons Why Raila Makes Best Choice for African Union Commission Job
Has Salva Kiir Jumped Ship?
The Kenya Times has spoken to political analyst Barack Muluka who says that Raila is being set up for failure and political paralysis.
According to him, individuals pledging their support to him know that he will not win.
“Raila has been set up for failure and the people pretending to be his friends now are very likely to be going around the country to put him down.
This time next year, they will say that they tried to help him, took him to China and Germany and campaigned for him. But it is meant to paralyze him politically,” he has said.
However, Professor and political analyst Fred Ogolla has noted that Raila should have nothing to worry about if he has a good strategy.
He has explained that Kiir is expected to cater to the whole East African community and Raila’s biggest worry should be whether or not they have a stronger relationship.
Also Read: Govt Unveils Raila’s Campaign Strategy for AUC Chairman
“I think Raila has gone through this, and he should not be worried if he is who he is. He has been a politician and campaigns in places where his opponents go the following day.
“His strategy is what should cause him worry or not. Does he have a deep-sitting relationship with Slava Kiir? Is he so self-assured that Kiir meeting with the Djiboutian candidate will not hurt him,” Ogolla has opined.
However, he had admitted that Kiir allowing the public to know of the meeting definitely raises questions of his stance on the matter.
“This is about managing reputation, so why did Salva Kiir accept this to be in public? If he had agreed to support Raila, would he have done it just because it is democracy?
“Is he sending a message that he is ready to support everyone or that he has decided to work with Djibouti for AU?”
How Raila Has Been Set Up for Failure from the Beginning
Muluka has opined that President William Ruto, and his government have not been able to maintain a good diplomatic relationship in Africa to help Raila’s case.
According to him, Arabic nations are likely to vote against Kenya because of Ruto’s stance on the Israel- Gaza war among other matters, yet their vote is among the majority.
“Right from day one, President William Ruto was blundering after leaving Kasarani where he was sworn in, talking about supporting the Sahrawi republic. Rubbing things the wrong way with Morocco,” he has noted.
“During the ongoing Israeli-Gaza activities, the president said that Kenya supports Israel. Right now, when you come out to ask these Arab nations up north to vote for your country, they will not vote for you.”
However, he has indicated that Raila is aware that he will not win the chairmanship position and is prepared to make a comeback to Kenya’s politics.
“He has a cause to worry but I think he is bright enough to know that he is not going to win.
“He will come back and take back ODM and has removed the strong guys out of the way, people like Joho, Wandanyi so he is not going anywhere.”
Follow our WhatsApp Channel for real-time news updates!
https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VaB3k54HltYFiQ1f2i2C
