The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that El Niño is strengthening into a very strong event, raising the risk of extreme weather across different parts of the world through 2027.
In its latest update released on Thursday, September 3, WMO said there is an exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100 per cent that the climate phenomenon will 100% persist through February 2027.
The organization said exceptionally warm conditions in the tropical Pacific are expected to drive further strengthening in the coming months, with the event likely to reach very strong intensity before peaking towards the end of 2026.
“El Niño is firmly established and will intensify into a very strong event in the coming months, with big impacts on rainfall and temperature patterns and associated risks of floods, drought and extreme heat,” WMO said.
WMO Issues Unusually Strong El Niño Warning as Weather Risks Extend Into 2027
Its effects on rainfall and temperatures are expected to continue into 2027.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that the developing situation could expose communities around the world to heightened weather risks.
“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes,” Guterres said, adding that rising sea surface temperatures and global temperatures were putting the world in the danger zone of extreme weather.
The latest warning marks an unusually high level of certainty from the global weather body.
WMO said this is the first time its El Niño/La Niña update has been so unequivocal about the persistence of an event, reflecting strong agreement among its network of forecasting centres.
El Niño is already firmly established, with ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific significantly above average.
The Niño 3.4 index, which monitors temperatures in a key section of the equatorial Pacific, averaged 1.5 degrees Celsius above normal between May and July 2026 before reaching 2.0 degrees Celsius above normal in July.
Weekly readings rose further between late July and mid-August, reaching about 2.2 to 2.6 degrees Celsius above average.
WMO also reported exceptionally warm water beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific, with temperatures in some areas more than 8 degrees Celsius above average during July and early August.
The heat stored beneath the ocean surface is expected to further strengthen the event.
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Extreme Weather as Very Strong El Niño Intensifies
A very strong El Niño can significantly alter rainfall, temperatures and atmospheric circulation across many regions, although WMO cautioned that the strength of the event alone does not determine the severity of its impact in a particular country.
The effects vary depending on location, season and how El Niño interacts with other climate drivers.
For September to November 2026, WMO forecasts show an increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas, while rainfall patterns are expected to reflect a pronounced response to the strong El Niño conditions in the Pacific.
The Indian Ocean is also expected to experience a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole, with a seasonal mean value of 0.9 degrees Celsius forecast for September, October and November.
WMO said the interaction between El Niño and other climate patterns could strengthen, weaken or alter the usual effects of the phenomenon in different regions.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the growing strength of the event required governments and communities to prepare for potentially serious consequences.
“El Niño in Spanish means boy child – but it has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world,” Saulo said. “We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods and we expect these impacts to increase as El Niño intensifies.”
The warning is particularly significant for countries whose economies and food systems are heavily dependent on rainfall, with agriculture, water, health, energy, transport and disaster management among the sectors expected to face increased pressure.
WMO has called for stronger preparedness and early-warning measures as the event develops, working with national meteorological and hydrological services to provide more specific forecasts for individual countries.
Saulo said the organization was already stepping up its response because of the unusual strength of the event.
“This exceptional El Niño demands exceptional preparation and response,” she said. “Never before in the 50-year history of the World Meteorological Organization have we launched such a major mobilization with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services who are on the frontline of delivering the forecasts and services to save lives and livelihoods.”
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El Niño Puts Kenya, Greater Horn of Africa on Alert for Heavy Rains and Floods
The latest global warning comes as the Greater Horn of Africa prepares for the October-December 2026 rainfall season, which is particularly important for Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia.
Regional forecasts have indicated a 90 per cent chance of enhanced rainfall over southern Ethiopia, central and southern Somalia and northeastern Kenya.
Parts of central Kenya and the Lake Victoria Basin could receive more than 400 millimetres of seasonal rainfall.
While increased rainfall could improve water availability and pasture conditions in some areas, excessive rainfall could increase the risk of flooding, crop losses, infrastructure damage and disruption of access to essential services.
The region is also expected to experience warmer-than-average temperatures, particularly across eastern Kenya, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti and much of Somalia.
The combination of heavy rainfall and high temperatures could create additional challenges for communities, farmers and authorities, particularly in areas vulnerable to floods and other weather-related hazards.
WMO has stressed that El Niño does not produce identical conditions everywhere. National meteorological agencies will therefore continue to issue country-specific forecasts and warnings as the event evolves.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon associated with unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It occurs periodically and can influence weather patterns far beyond the Pacific region.
The current El Niño is not itself caused by climate change, although WMO has warned that a warmer atmosphere and ocean can amplify some of its effects, including extreme heat and heavy rainfall.
With the event expected to strengthen further before reaching its peak towards the end of 2026, WMO is urging governments and communities to use available forecasts to strengthen preparedness ahead of the potentially disruptive conditions expected into 2027.
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