The 4th industrial revolution (4IR), which is currently underway, hinges on digitization. It’s a fusion of digital, physical, and biological innovations. The key 4IR technologies include: artificial intelligence, machine learning, blockchain, distributed ledger technology, cloud computing, internet of things, robotics, 3D printing, robotic process automation, quantum computing, virtual reality, augmented reality, extended reality, 5G mobile network, and cyber-physical systems.
The Kenyan government, MSMEs, and wananchi need to avoid the risk of sleepwalking into the 4th Industrial Revolution by taking full advantage of its immense opportunities while mitigating its threats and risks through regulation. Ann Richards is quoted as saying, If you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu”. The Kenyan public and private sectors, as well as individuals, must make deliberate decisions to maximize the benefits of AI while minimizing its harms. Kenyans are in a marathon where any human being, business, or government from anywhere in the world who deeply understands these technologies will emerge the winner. Government protection is needed to protect everyone from the harmful effects of these technologies.
AI and the other 4IR technologies are like double-edged swords that can cut both ways. For instance, AI has fundamentally altered the cybersecurity landscape into a race of machines against machines. Defenders (the Shield Holders) use AI for automated threat detection and rapid incident response, and thus fight fire with fire against cybercriminals and rogue governments (the Sword Holders), who leverage AI to craft convincing deepfakes, highly personalized phishing attacks, and automated malware.
Quantifying artificial intelligence Opportunities
The 2026 McKinsey Global Institute publication entitled “The race takes off in the next big arenas of competition” highlights the 18 fastest-growing and scaling-up industries shaping the playgrounds for business value creation, innovation, competition, the global economic center of gravity, geopolitics, investment capital flows, the talent war, and supply chains. These are the 18 industries that the Kenyan government, MSMEs, and wananchi need to prioritize to be excellent global competitors.
In the period 2022-2025, these 18 industries have outrun other sectors in value at the stock market by growing 4X faster, with USA companies dominating 14 of the 18 industries. Their revenues are growing at 10X the rate of peers, at a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 11%, with U.S. firms dominating 10 of the 18 industries. Their research and innovation budget has grown at a 14% CAGR, while their profitability has grown 3X faster than peers’.
The artificial intelligence foundation cluster includes companies in the AI, cloud computing, and semiconductors industries. AI revenues will reach USD 4.6 trillion by 2040, with a revenue CAGR of 25%, while the market capitalization CAGR for 2022-2025 stood at a whopping 142%. AI market leaders across many other industries include Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Tesla, and Meta from the US, as well as Alibaba and Huawei from China, while OpenAI, XAI, and Scale AI focus solely on AI. Fast-tracking the widespread adoption of AI by citizens, MSMEs, and the government is thus key to everyone growing their incomes and becoming richer.
Quantifying AI Threats
Cybersecurity and warfare risks have risen dramatically since the start of AI-assisted cyberattacks, poisoning of AI models, and use of lethal military self-driven weapons like drones in the current Russia-Ukraine war, the Israel, USA, and Iran war, and the neighboring Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces civil war. AI-driven cyber threats are broad and multifaceted, affecting nearly 87% of global organizations. The annual global cost of cybercrime will reach $13.82 trillion by 2028. Cybersecurity by companies and government is thus key to protecting vulnerable citizens and businesses.
Misinformation, disinformation, and social instability are on the rise. Deloitte forecasts that generative AI could drive US fraud losses from $12.3 billion in 2023 to $40 billion by 2027 (with synthetic identity fraud accounting for 46% of incidents, voice deepfakes at 37%, and video deepfakes at 29%).
Economic and societal disruption is expected due to job losses from AI-driven automation of tasks currently handled by humans, necessitating massive retraining of workers. Goldman Sachs projects that AI could affect 300 million full-time employees across the world. Citizens are advised to invest in skills such as creativity, problem-solving, leadership, and entrepreneurship, which are expected to see rising demand.
Bill Gates has recommended a Robot Tax on enterprises that use AI to replace human labor at the same tax rate previously paid by humans. This tax revenue can be redistributed to all citizens as Universal Basic Income (UBI). OpenAI recommends Universal AI Wealth Funds, in which AI taxes directly fund dividend payouts to citizens. Dario Amodei, the CEO of Anthropic, has proposed a 3% tax on companies using large AI models. South Korea is considering taxing digital usage of high-capacity AI computer processors and the volume of AI interactions with users.
AI has increased data privacy risks from unauthorized harvesting, leakage, and misuse of sensitive personal information, as well as the lack of transparency in AI “black boxes”. Deloitte put $4.88 million as the global average cost of a single data breach in 2024. Citizens should know their data privacy and protection rights.
Global Lessons from AI Governance and Ethics Regulation
UNESCO’s 2024 ‘’Consultation Paper on AI Regulation – Emerging Approaches Across the World’’ highlighted nine AI governance and ethics regulatory approaches ranging from less interventionist, light-touch regulatory measures to tougher and penalizing approaches.
The 1st is the Principles-Based Approach, which provides guidelines for developing and using AI systems through ethical, responsible, human-centered, and human rights-abiding processes, e.g., UNESCO’s “Recommendations on the Ethics of AI” of November 2021.
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The 2nd is the Standards-Based Approach, which involves the government delegating regulatory powers to organizations that produce technical standards that will guide the interpretation and implementation of mandatory rules, e.g., the EU’s AI Act (effective from August 2024).
The 3rd is the Agile and Experimentalist Approach, which introduces government-controlled testing sites that allow companies to test new business models, methods, infrastructure, and tools under easy conditions, e.g., the UK’s “pro-innovation to AI regulation”.
The 4th is the Facilitating and Enabling Approach, which creates an environment that encourages stakeholders in the AI lifecycle to develop and use responsible, ethical, and human rights-compliant AI systems, e.g., UNESCO’s 2023 AI Readiness Assessment Methodology.
The 5th is the Adapting Existing Laws Approach, which allows amendments to be made to each economic sector or to the country’s constitutional criminal codes, public procurement, labor laws, and data protection laws (e.g., the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation).
From Access to Information to Penalties and Kenya’s Call to Action
The 6th is the Access to Information Mandates Approach, which enables the public to access basic information about AI systems. For instance, France’s Article 6 of Law N° 2016-1321.
The 7th is the Risk-Based Approach, which establishes obligations and requirements depending on the risks associated with the deployment and use of certain AI tools in specific scenarios, e.g., Canada’s Directive on Automated Decision-Making.
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The 8th is the Rights-Based Approach, which establishes obligations or requirements to protect individuals’ rights and freedoms, e.g., Brazilian bill No. 2238 / 2023 enshrines rights for persons affected by AI systems.
The 9th is the Liability Approach, which assigns responsibility and penalties for problematic uses of AI systems, e.g., the EU’s AI Act fines of up to EUR 35M or up to 7% of a firm’s total worldwide annual sales revenues for the past year, whichever is higher.
The Government of Kenya, private sector, citizens and Non-Profit Institutions Serving Households (NGOs, churches, trade unions, political parties, sports clubs, universities) needs to hasten pervasive adoption and scaling up of AI while muting AI threats and addressing AI risks in Kenya’s Artificial Intelligence Bill, 2026 (Senate Bill No. 4) which is currently undergoing the legislative process at the Senate plus global best practices in AI governance and ethics. Take time to contribute during the public participation phases of this bill to safeguard your interests and your current and future jobs as AI changes the world.
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