The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) has forecast rainfall in parts of all 47 counties from Friday, November 13, to November 17, 2026.
KMSA’s latest rain forecast comes as the country continues its October–December short-rains season, with attention focused on El Niño.
In its five-day weather forecast issued on November 11, KMSA stated that light to moderate rainfall is expected in several counties, with some areas also likely to experience thunderstorms and lightning.
According to KMSA, expected light rainfall amounts will be below 5 millimetres in 24 hours, while moderate rainfall ranges between 5 and 20 millimetres.
On the other hand, heavy rainfall amounts will range between 21 and 50 millimetres, and very heavy rainfall amounts will exceed 50 millimetres in 24 hours.
The forecast covers Mombasa, Kwale, Kilifi, Tana River, Lamu, Taita/Taveta, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Marsabit, Isiolo, Meru, Tharaka-Nithi, Embu, Kitui, Machakos, Makueni, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, Turkana, West Pokot, Samburu, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo/Marakwet, Nandi, Baringo, Laikipia, Nakuru, Narok, Kajiado, Kericho, Bomet, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Busia, Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Kisii, Nyamira and Nairobi.
Nairobi Weather Outlook Ahead of El Niño Season
Nairobi is expected to experience light morning rain on Friday, November 13, followed by moderate afternoon showers and light showers at night.
On November 14 and 15, Nairobi is expected to have sunny intervals in the mornings and light afternoon showers.
The night of November 14 is expected to be partly cloudy, while light showers are forecast for the night of November 15.
Light morning rain is forecast for November 16 and 17. Light afternoon showers are forecast for November 16, while moderate showers are expected on November 17. Both evenings are likely to receive light showers.
Daytime temperatures are expected to range between 26 and 27 degrees Celsius, with night-time temperatures falling to between 12 and 14 degrees Celsius.
Also Read: Why Kenya Is Experiencing Extreme Heat Despite El Niño Forecasts
Counties Expected to Experience Thunderstorms
Several counties in the Rift Valley and western regions are expected to experience showers accompanied by thunder and lightning during the forecast period as the El Niño rains near.
West Pokot is forecast to receive moderate afternoon showers with thunder and lightning throughout the five days, while Trans Nzoia is expected to experience similar conditions each afternoon.
Nakuru, Kericho, Bomet, Kakamega, Bungoma, Vihiga, Nandi, Busia, Narok, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Kisii and Nyamira are also among the counties where showers accompanied by thunder and lightning are expected between November 13 and 17.
In Turkana, light afternoon showers with thunder and lightning are expected on November 13, 14 and 17.
Similar afternoon conditions are expected in Samburu and Elgeyo/Marakwet on several days during the five days.
Temperatures and Other Regional Forecasts
Garissa and Turkana are expected to record some of the highest temperatures during the forecast period, with daytime highs reaching 37 degrees Celsius.
Cooler conditions are forecast in Nyandarua, where maximum temperatures will range between 22 and 23 degrees Celsius. Night-time temperatures could fall to 9 degrees Celsius on November 15.
In Mombasa, light showers are expected during the morning, afternoon and night from November 13 to 17, with daytime temperatures ranging between 31 and 32 degrees Celsius.
Across the eastern region, Meru is forecast to receive light morning rain and moderate afternoon showers on November 14, 15 and 16.
Machakos is expected to experience moderate afternoon showers on November 13 and 17, while Kitui is forecast to receive moderate showers on November 13, 14, 16 and 17.
Also Read: El Niño? Heavy Rains and Storm Leave Four Injured as Hotels and Businesses Are Destroyed
Kenya Met Issues Marine Forecast for Coast and Offshore Waters
The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority has also issued a seven-day marine forecast warning of varying wind speeds and wave conditions along the Kenya Coast and offshore waters between November 12 and November 18, as the country prepares for the El Niño showers.
According to the forecast, north-easterly to south-south-easterly winds will prevail over the waters of Kenya, Tanzania and Somalia, with speeds ranging from 2 to 20 knots (1 to 10 metres per second).
Wave heights are expected to range between 0.2 and 1.8 metres across the three countries’ waters during the forecast period, with slight to moderate sea conditions anticipated.
“North-Easterly to South-South-Easterly winds are expected over Kenya, Tanzania and Somalia waters with wind speeds of 02 to 20 knots (1-10m/s) throughout the forecast period,” KMSA noted.
On November 12, wave heights are forecast to range between 0.2 and 1.4 metres, with wind speeds of 2 to 16 knots.
From November 13 to 17, waves are expected to reach a maximum height of 1.6 metres, while winds will vary between 2 and 20 knots.
The highest waves during the forecast period are expected on November 18, when heights could reach 1.8 metres, with wind speeds forecast at between 2 and 16 knots.
In addition, the marine outlook also provides tide forecasts for the seven days, with high and low tides varying in time and height along the coast.
The department classifies wave heights of between 0.6 and 1.0 metres as slight, while conditions between 1.0 and 1.9 metres are classified as slight to moderate.
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