For weeks, Kenyans have waited for the expected October-November-December (OND) rains, but dry, sunny conditions have persisted in several parts of the country despite earlier forecasts. The delay has raised questions about the anticipated El Niño-enhanced rainfall and when the rains will spread to more regions.
In an interview with the media, Hannah Kimani, Director, Public Weather Services at the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA), explained that a low-pressure system developing over the northern Indian Ocean temporarily disrupted the movement of the weather system responsible for bringing seasonal rainfall to Kenya.
“So we started having a low-pressure system developing over the northern Indian Ocean, and this temporarily stopped the southward progression of the Intertropical Convergence Zone,” Hannah Kimani stated.
The department had earlier forecast fair to good rainfall distribution in many parts of the country by the second week of October.
El Niño conditions were already established in the Pacific by October 2026, but Kenya’s associated El Niño-enhanced short rains were expected to begin in the second to third week of October 2026, with timing varying by county.
However, changing atmospheric conditions have affected the progression of the rains, prompting meteorologists to analyse weather models and new data to establish the factors behind the delay.
Low-Pressure System Disrupts Expected Rainfall
The director explained that the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which brings rainfall during the October-to-December season as it moves southwards, had already triggered the onset of rains in some areas
However, a developing low-pressure system over the northern Indian Ocean temporarily interrupted its progression.
“During October to December, the Intertropical Convergence Zone brings us rainfall when it is moving from the north to the southern hemisphere,” Hannah Kimani said.
The department reported that some areas in western Kenya and the Coast recorded the onset of rainfall as early as September, while other areas began receiving rain in the first week of October.
Despite the early onset in some regions, the expected gradual spread of rainfall to other parts of the country has been affected by the changing weather patterns.
Also Read: Kenya’s High-Risk Areas Named Ahead of El Niño Rains
Hannah Kimani attributed the prevailing dry conditions in some areas to the disruption, explaining that the rains had been expected to spread progressively across the country.
“That is why we’ve been experiencing the dry weather conditions, in a period where we expected onset to gradually spread to the other parts of the country,” the director said.
El Niño Expectations Raise Questions as Dry Weather Persists
Expectations for the short-rains season rose on forecasts of El Niño conditions expected to boost rainfall, raising the possibility of a particularly wet season.
However, KMSA said rainfall onset occurred as expected in some areas, including Mandera, Marsabit, Nyeri and Meru, even as other parts of the country continued to experience dry weather.
The Indian Ocean, a key source of moisture for rainfall, lacked the conditions needed to sustain the expected rains over parts of central and eastern Kenya, according to the report.
This delay has also prompted reactions on social media, where some Kenyans have expressed frustration through humour while others have raised concerns over the absence of the anticipated El Niño rains.
Tropical Storm Could Influence Kenya’s Rainfall Outlook
Kenya Met said it is monitoring a tropical storm that could influence rainfall patterns in the coming days. Its impact will depend on the direction in which it moves, meaning it could either support rainfall or divert weather systems away from areas expecting rain.
Further, the department noted that its weekly forecast, released on Monday, indicated that rainfall could occur in pockets of the country. However, it remains uncertain whether the developing storm will bring enough rain to end the prevailing dry spell.
Also Read: Kenyans Warned of Storms and Flash Floods as Short Rains Begin
The official said the department would continue tracking the storm and updating its forecasts as new information becomes available.
“These tropical storms, depending on trajectory, either bring us rainfall or take it away from us,” the official said.
The department also explained that weather forecasting involves probabilities because atmospheric conditions can change as weather systems develop and move.
Daily forecasts are therefore updated to reflect the latest observations and analysis.
The official added that the changing conditions and multiple factors affecting rainfall make it difficult to guarantee a specific outcome in advance, pointing to the need for continued monitoring as Kenyans await the expected short rains.
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