The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority has warned of isolated storms and possible flash floods as the October–December (OND) 2026 short rains season begins, with light to moderate rainfall expected across 45 counties during the week.
“As the October–December (OND) 2026 Short Rains season gets underway, rainfall is expected over several parts of the country during this week,” the weatherman stated.
According to the weather forecast, light to moderate rainfall is expected in several parts of the country including Baringo, Bomet, Bungoma, Busia, Elgeyo Marakwet, Embu, Garissa, Homa Bay, Kajiado, Kakamega, Kericho, Kiambu, Kilifi, Kirinyaga, Kisii, Kisumu, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Machakos, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Migori, Mombasa, Murang’a, Nairobi, Nakuru, Nandi, Narok, Nyamira, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Siaya, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka-Nithi, Trans Nzoia, Turkana, Uasin Gishu, Vihiga, Wajir and West Pokot.
Isolated storms are expected over parts of Mandera, Wajir and Marsabit, as well as Tana River and Kilifi, with the weather service warning that the storms may lead to flash floods.
Kenya Met Reveals When El Niño Rains Will Hit Different Regions
The weatherman announced the onset of the October-December rainfall season, with heavy rains expected in several parts of the country. The rains are expected to improve water and pasture supplies but could also cause flooding, waterlogging and disruptions to farming activities.
Acting head of the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority Edward Muriuki said rainfall had already been recorded in 24 counties, although the onset would not occur at the same time across the country.
Counties that have already recorded rainfall include Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Siaya, Busia, Baringo, Nakuru, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, West Pokot, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Bomet, Narok, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Mombasa, Kwale, Lamu and Kilifi.
Coastal and northeastern areas, including Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu and Mandera, are among the areas expected to receive some of the heaviest rainfall. Above-average rainfall is also forecast in parts of central Kenya and the southeast, including Nairobi, Kiambu, Machakos, Makueni, Meru, Embu and Nyeri.
Muriuki said the onset would continue spreading across the country, with Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo expected to receive rainfall in the first or second week of October. Central Kenya and Ukambani are expected to see the onset during the second or third week, while Turkana and Samburu are expected to be among the last areas to receive the rains.
“Rainfall is influenced by several climate systems, including El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole,” Muriuki said, cautioning against attributing the season’s rainfall to El Niño alone.
The expected rains could improve soil moisture, replenish water sources and regenerate pasture while supporting land preparation and planting. However, excessive rainfall could cause waterlogged farms, crop diseases, flooding and difficulties transporting produce to markets.
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World Meteorological Organization also expects a positive Indian Ocean Dipole to develop during September-November as El Niño conditions strengthen. Temperatures are also expected to remain above average in most parts of Kenya during the season.
Weatherman Issues Kenya Coast Marine Forecast
The weatherman has also issued a seven-day marine forecast covering the Kenya Coast and offshore areas along the Western Indian Ocean region from October 6 to October 12, 2026.
According to the weatherman, east-north-easterly to south-south-westerly winds are expected over the waters of Somalia, Kenya and Tanzania, with speeds ranging between 2 and 18 knots throughout the forecast period.
Easterly to south-south-westerly waves are expected over Kenya and Tanzania waters, with wave heights ranging from 0.2 to 1.6 meters, equivalent to about 0.6 to 4.8 feet.
The department said light to fresh breezes are expected across the region, with sea conditions ranging from slight to moderate during the forecast period. On Tuesday, October 6, wave heights are forecast to range from 0.5 to 1.6 meters, with winds reaching 6 to 16 knots.
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For Wednesday, October 7, the forecast places wave heights between 0.2 and 1.6 meters, with winds ranging from 4 to 14 knots. The weatherman expects wave heights of 0.4 to 1.6 meters on Thursday, October 8, with winds between 6 and 24 knots.
On Friday, October 9, wave heights are expected to range from 0.2 to 1.4 meters, accompanied by winds of 4 to 16 knots. On Saturday, October 10, wave heights are forecast to range from 0.4 to 1.4 meters, with winds of 6 to 16 knots.
On Sunday, October 11, wave heights are expected to be 0.4 to 1.6 meters, with winds ranging from 8 to 16 knots. On Monday, October 12, wave heights are forecast at 0.4 to 1.6 meters, with winds ranging from 4 to 18 knots.
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