The inaction of China reportedly deeply disappointed the Russian elites, understandably. Many expected that China would exploit the chaos in Europe seeing it as a chance to conquer Taiwan. Still, they didn’t invade. Why?
Throughout its history, China suffered from an uncountable number of civil wars and inner conflicts.
Naturally, some of them could trigger the Chinese expansion rather than hamper it; the transition from Ming to Qing being probably one of the most vivid examples with the victorious Qing army marching south, the last Ming loyalists had little choice but to escape.
A fraction led by a Ming loyalist and a pirate admiral Koxinga chose to evacuate their base from the mainland. The Dutch-controlled Taiwan (Formosa) looked like an obvious choice Koxinga’s troops smashed the Dutch and took control of the island.
Tonio Andrade whom I highly recommend, framed this as the victory of China over the West.
But it was not the central government in Beijing that captured Taiwan for China, it was a defeated faction in the civil war, Civil strife being a trigger of the territorial expansion being a well-known pattern in the history of the British Isles.
Stuarts are imposing the High Church (yeah, it’s a historical term, but it conveys the idea) conformity so the Puritans have to escape to what is now the New England Civil War bringing the fall of the Stuarts, and the Low Church triumphs over the High Most English overseas possessions were reluctant to accept the defeated Cavaliers.
Except for Virginia, whose governor welcomed them warmly.
Soon they comprised the bulk of the local ruling class considering that the American North and the South were built by the political emigres who represented the two opposing factions in the English Civil War, and hold the opposite views on nearly everything, it’s striking how they managed to live in relative peace for so long
At least this is the impression I had when reading the book David Hackett Fischer’s Albion’s seed.
You may disagree with its conclusions, but they’re certainly interesting.
Its argument is way more nuanced than what I just outlined; I just don’t want to go any further for now.
Thinking in higher orders, the story of the British civil wars and the emigration waves they triggered reminded me of the following idea. “It was probably the inability to live in peace with each other rather than thirst for food or resources that triggered the human expansion”
The Transition from Ming to Qing triggered the destruction of European colonies in Taiwan and the true incorporation of the island into China may be a good example of this pattern.
It was not the government who conquered it, it was the evacuating rebels being located far enough from the mainland to grant certain security but close enough to allow for a mass evacuation, Taiwan was an obvious choice of a haven for a losing fraction in the civil war.
In the 17th century, it would be Ming, in the 20th century it was the Kuomintang
The civil war between the KMT and the Communists with the numerous warlord fractions clinging to this or that side had been going on for decades.
During WWII the KMT was too busy fighting the Japanese. With the KMT’s attention deflected, the Communists grew very much stronger. At the end of WWII, Communists were ready to crystallize their new influence by effectively dividing the country with the KMT.
In 1945 Mao Zedong offered Chiang Kai-shek to keep the south, living in a few northern provinces (including Beijing) to Mao. Chiang refused.
Back in 1945 Communists wanted to divide China into two zones of influence because they still perceived themselves as a weaker side in the civil war. But by 1949 they were winning. With victorious Communists marching south, the KMT had little choice but to evacuate to Taiwan.
In a nutshell:
– It’s not necessarily the unity that triggers the territorial expansion. It’s quite often the division
– It was the division of China that triggered the incorporation of Taiwan into its structure. Taiwan was an obvious refuge for the losers in a civil war.
– Communists didn’t always stand for the unity of China. They wanted to divide it while being weaker
– From 1945-to 1949 the balance of power between the CPC and KMT reversed
– Taiwan was the only foothold the KMT could evacuate to and realistically hoped to keep from the CPC onslaught.
Unlike what Washington warmongers wished, China has its agenda and won’t be easily induced by US politicians belonging to the military-industrial complex. China’s action will be swift and resolute once TW moves towards independence.
The whole international community, including the US, believes the Chinese mainland and Taiwan belong to One China. The 1992 Consensus is also about that.
It was endorsed/recognized by Tsai’s predecessors.
For all noise in the west, China will not reclaim Taiwan by force in the forceable future. Because neither China nor US will be certain of war control to achieve military objectives.
So, PLA & the U.S. military will continue with grey zone ops below the war threshold & strengthen deterrence!
