Prominent constitutional lawyer Ahmednasir Abdullahi has broken down what he describes as four distinct opposition groups seeking to unseat President William Ruto in the 2027 General Election.
In a detailed analysis on Wednesday, June 18, 2025, Ahmednasir argued that while some leaders in the opposition are rooted in principle, a large portion is driven by tribal interests or personal ambition.
According to Ahmednasir, the first group—making up about 13% of Ruto’s opposition—is defined by its belief in the rule of law, accountability, and good governance. He described their cause as genuine and said that this faction is critical of the government’s alleged disregard for the Constitution and the growing levels of corruption.
“This group consists of civil society, the Law Society of Kenya (LSK), former Chief Justice Willy Mutunga, lawyer Nelson Havi, and politicians like Babu Owino,” he said, calling their opposition “righteous and principled.”
Ahmednasir Identifies Four Opposition Categories Set to Challenge Ruto in 2027
The second faction, which he said is the largest bloc at 70%, is led by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and is primarily “tribal” in nature.
Ahmednasir accused this group of undermining Ruto, not based on governance or performance, but purely on ethnic grounds.
“They don’t care about the rule of law or human rights. For them, the next president must come from Mt Kenya,” he claimed.
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The lawyer also listed a third group, which he described as an ambition-driven opposition, constituting 14% of the total opposition.
This group, he argued, is composed of seasoned politicians such as Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka, former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, and former Attorney General Justin Muturi.
He claimed that the group is primarily interested in attaining power.
“They are not driven by principle or tribal identity. They just want to take over power, which is a legitimate and even noble pursuit,” he wrote.
Kenyans React to Lawyer’s Analysis
The final faction includes individuals who, according to Ahmednasir, lack both ideology and serious political credentials.
“They are in the opposition for the thrill.. the excitement… the adventure,” he said, mentioning retired Chief Justice David Maraga as a symbolic leader of this group.
Ahmednasir’s analysis sparked a debate online, with both supporters and critics of President Ruto interpreting the remarks through various political lenses.
Also Read: LSK Blasts Supreme Court Over Ahmednasir Abdullahi Case
A user by the name Gasusu commented: “SC, if this was meant to please Ruto then it makes sense. But as a serious analyst, your percentages lack scientific basis. Your analysis lacks a conclusion. Never underestimate anyone.”
Another user, Captain Kipkorir, said: “You got it right on tribal bigots. However, I disagree on civil society and commercial activists who are fuelling public anger for their own gains.”
Colins Dave added: “This is actually true.”
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