Calls to impeach Donald Trump are gaining renewed attention as debate grows over the United States’ involvement in the escalating conflict with Iran.

Critics of the president have increasingly pointed to the Middle East crisis as a reason Congress should consider impeachment, even as political realities in Washington make such a move unlikely in the near term. 

Trump has already faced impeachment twice during his first presidency. In both cases, the Senate acquitted him, allowing him to remain in office. Now, as the political environment shifts and the 2026 midterm elections approach, the conversation around a possible third impeachment is resurfacing among some Democratic candidates and activists.

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Several Democratic figures campaigning ahead of the midterms have openly discussed the possibility of pursuing impeachment if their party gains control of the House of Representatives. Among them are Christian Menefee, Daniel K. Biss, Laura Fine, and Kat Abughazaleh, who have argued that Trump’s handling of the Iran conflict warrants congressional scrutiny. 

Political Barriers Remain 

Despite these calls, Trump is not currently facing impeachment proceedings. The process would require a majority vote in the House of Representatives to approve articles of impeachment against the president. If that happens, the case will then move to the Senate, where a two-thirds majority vote would be required to convict and remove the president from office. 

Now, Republicans control both the House and the Senate, creating a significant obstacle for any attempt to impeach the president. Without a shift in congressional power, the chances of impeachment moving forward remain slim. 

However, the political equation could change after the 2026 midterm elections, scheduled for November 3. During the midterms, voters will decide on all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats in the Senate. If Democrats were to win control of the House, they would gain the authority to launch investigations and potentially introduce articles of impeachment. 

Betting Markets Reflect Uncertainty 

Prediction markets that track political outcomes have begun reflecting the growing speculation around impeachment. Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi provide insight into how bettors view the likelihood of such an event. 

Current data suggests a relatively low probability of impeachment in the short term. Kalshi estimates only a 3 percent chance that Trump could be impeached by June 1, 2026. The odds rise slightly to 14 percent by January 1, 2027. 

However, longer-term predictions show a dramatic shift. By January 1, 2028, betting markets place the probability of Trump being impeached at around 71 percent, reflecting uncertainty about how the political landscape could evolve after the midterm elections.

These figures are not predictions by government institutions but rather indicators of how participants in prediction markets are assessing political risks. 

Approval Ratings Under Pressure 

Public opinion polls also show the president facing challenges in terms of approval ratings. According to polling averages compiled by RealClearPolitics, Trump’s current job approval stands at 42.9 percent, while 54.4 percent of respondents disapprove of his performance.

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The numbers represent a noticeable decline from the early days of his current term. When Trump began his presidency in January 2025, his approval rating was around 50.5 percent, with 44.3 percent disapproval. 

More recent polling suggests that the numbers have remained relatively stable but lower than earlier levels. Daily tracking by Rasmussen Reports placed Trump’s approval at 44 per cent as of March 13. Meanwhile, a poll conducted by YouGov for The Economist found 43 per cent approval and 54 per cent disapproval. 

Midterm Elections Loom Large 

The upcoming midterm elections are likely to play a critical role in determining whether impeachment becomes a serious possibility. Polling averages suggest Democrats currently hold a modest lead in the generic congressional ballot. 

RealClearPolitics data indicates 47.8 percent of voters say they would support Democratic candidates, compared with 43.1 percent who prefer Republicans. 

Prediction market odds further suggest a high probability that Democrats could regain control of the House, while Republicans may still maintain a narrow advantage in the Senate.