Kenya is bracing for El Niño-enhanced short rains, with several counties facing the possibility of heavy downpours, thunderstorms and flash floods.
The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority has warned of heavy rainfall across several parts of the country, with some areas forecast to receive more than 100 millimetres of rain during the October 23–30 forecast period.
In an advisory issued on October 23, the department identified Central, Western, Nyanza, the Rift Valley, the Coast, the southeastern lowlands, and northwestern Kenya as areas of concern.
“Moderate to heavy rainfall exceeding 50 mm in 24 hrs is anticipated over the Coastline in Coast, Central, Western, Nyanza and parts of the Rift Valley. Heavy rainfall is expected over parts of the Southeastern lowlands from 24th to 27th October 2025,” part of the advisory read.
The forecast also indicated strong winds, large waves along the coastline and persistently high temperatures in parts of northern and northeastern Kenya.
Areas Expected to Receive Heavy Rainfall
According to KMSA, rainfall exceeding 50 millimeters in 24 hours was anticipated in parts of the Coast, Central, Western, Nyanza and Rift Valley regions.
Among the listed counties to experience El Niño rainfall concerns are Nairobi, Murang’a, Kiambu, Nyeri, Nyandarua, Laikipia, Nakuru, Narok, Bomet, Kericho, Kisii, Nyamira, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Siaya, Busia, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, West Pokot, Baringo and Nandi.
Thika and the coastline, alongside other areas in the southeastern lowlands, northwestern Kenya and the wider regions, are potentially going to experience heavy rainfall in 24 hours.
Parts of the southeastern lowlands are expected to experience heavy rainfall between October 24 and October 27.
Also Read: Kenyans Warned of Dangerous Sea Conditions, Flash Floods and Rain Expected in 44 Counties
Northwestern Kenya Rainfall Totals
The department forecast rainfall exceeding 50 millimetres in northwestern Kenya, with amounts surpassing 100 millimetres possible on October 25 and 26.
From October 23 to 9 a.m. on October 30, areas around Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Tana River, Lamu and Kilifi are forecast to receive heavy rainfall.
Other areas with elevated rainfall totals include parts of the central highlands around Nairobi and Murang’a, western Kenya, the Rift Valley, and northwestern regions.
Strong Winds and Large Waves Expected
KMSA also forecast southerly to southeasterly winds of 25-40 knots, equivalent to 46–74 kilometres per hour, along coastal areas.
Winds of 20 to 30 knots, or about 37–56 kilometres per hour, were expected in the northern and northeastern parts of the country.
Further, KMSA warned that high temperatures would persist in parts of the northern and northeastern regions.
Public advisory
As the country nears the El Niño season, residents in the affected areas were advised to remain alert, while farmers were urged to take measures to protect crops and livestock.
Motorists were advised to drive carefully due to reduced visibility and slippery roads.
“Residents in the mentioned areas should remain on high alert and take necessary precautions. Farmers are advised to take measures to protect their crops and livestock. Motorists are advised to drive carefully due to reduced visibility and slippery roads,” Dr David Gikungu, Director of the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority, advised.
In addition, the Service Authority also called on relevant stakeholders to coordinate and share information, urging the public to monitor official weather updates.
Also Read: Kenya Met Explains Why El Niño Rains Have Delayed as Kenyans Grow Impatient
KMSA Forecast Sea Conditions Across Counties Ahead of El Niño
The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority earlier forecast heavy rainfall and dangerous conditions in 44 counties between October 22 and 29, 2026.
In a seven-day weather forecast by KMSA, the service authority noted that east-southeast to south-southwesterly winds are expected to blow at 4 to 24 knots (2–12 metres per second).
In addition, the Sea conditions are forecast to range from light to rough, with very rough seas possible in areas experiencing stronger winds and higher waves during the October 22 to 29.
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