A survey by Infotrak Research & Consulting has revealed that most Kenyans expect key economic indicators to rise over the next year.
According to the survey released on December 30, 61% of respondents anticipate an increase in the cost of living, while 10% expect it to remain the same, 21% foresee a decrease, and 8% were unsure.
School fees is also expected to climb, with 61% of respondents predicting higher costs, 11% expecting no change, 21% anticipating a decrease, and 7% uncertain.
The Ministry of Education has, however, not confirmed if parents will have to dig deeper into their pockets in 2026.
Unemployment is another area of concern, as 59% of respondents expect joblessness to worsen, 11% anticipate stability, 23% foresee a decrease, and 8% are unsure.
Electricity costs are expected to rise: 53% of respondents predict an increase, 15% expect no change, 22% anticipate a decrease, and 9% are uncertain.
Fuel prices are similarly expected to go up, with 49% of respondents forecasting higher costs, 14% expecting them to remain stable, 25% predicting a decline, and 12% unsure.
Costs for fertilizer and other farm inputs are expected to increase according to 44% of respondents, while 16% foresee no change, 27% predict a decrease, and 12% are uncertain.
Regarding the dollar’s exchange rate against the Kenyan shilling, opinions are more divided: 33% expect the shilling to weaken, 13% foresee no change, 19% anticipate an appreciation, and 35% are unsure.
Infotrak Poll Shows Majority of Kenyans Believe 2026 Will Be Better
According to the Infotrak survey, 29% believe that 2026 will be better than 2025, 25% expect it to be about the same, 16% think it will be worse, while 30% say they do not know what to expect.
Among the 29% respondents who believe that 2026 will be better than 2025, 35% cited expectations of an improving economy as the main reason for their optimism.
A further 22% said they believe their personal finances will improve, while 21% pointed to continued peace in the country.
Meanwhile, 18% expressed optimism that they will secure a job or a better-paying job, and 17% said they expect their businesses to expand and grow.
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Among the 25% of respondents who believe 2026 will be worse than 2025, nearly half expect the economy to deteriorate.
A further 34% cited fears that their personal finances will worsen, while 16% said they believe their businesses will suffer.
Additionally, 15% expressed concern that they may be unable to find a job or could face retrenchment, and 6% pointed to the threat of an imminent drought as a key factor driving their pessimism.
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2025 Overview and Trends
According to the Infotrak survey of 1,000 respondents, the death of Raila Odinga emerged as the single most significant event or trend shaping perceptions of 2025, cited by 30% of participants.
Gen Z protests followed at 12%, while the cost of living was mentioned by 11%.
Politics and governance accounted for 8% of responses, with abductions and killings, as well as financial hardship, each cited by 6%.
Employment issues and personal or family matters were mentioned by 5% apiece, while peace and stability and business challenges each stood at 4%.
Affordable housing, agriculture initiatives such as free fertilizer, and crime and insecurity were each cited by 3% of respondents.
The deaths of other leaders and health policy changes, including SHA and SHIF, were mentioned by 2% and 1% respectively, while taxation was cited by just 0.4% of respondents.
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