The United States (US) government has acknowledged a major error in its foreign student visa data that misrepresented international student enrollment numbers for the 2024 academic year.
In April 2025, ICEF Monitor and other outlets reported an 11% drop in international student enrolment in the US between March 2024 and March 2025.
The data originated from the Student and Exchange Visitor Information System (SEVIS), overseen by the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and was used widely across the education sector.
However, ICEF Monitor has confirmed that the figures were inaccurate, following an alert from EnglishUSA, a US-based association of English language programs.
The discrepancy was discovered during internal analysis and formally reported to DHS on 14 April 2025.
Also Read: US Resumes Visa Applications for Foreign Students Under New Guidelines
Consequently, DHS has since reissued the corrected data, published on 2 July, revealing that international enrolment in fact grew by 6.5%, reaching a record 1,294,231 students as of September 2024.
The difference between the earlier inaccurate data and the corrected figures amounts to more than 200,000 students.
“The gap first appears in August 2023 and widens by September. It’s still unclear whether anyone at DHS noticed the issues before EnglishUSA raised the flag in April,” Professor Chris Glass, an expert on international education at Boston College and affiliated with the Center for International Higher Education (CIHE), said.
Although the corrected numbers show a more positive trend for 2024, the outlook for 2025/26 is far less certain.
Visa Delays Affect 2025 Prospects
Additionally, data from the US Department of State shows that F-1 visa issuances dropped by more than 14% between January and May 2025, compared to the same period in 2024.
The trend raised alarm among education analysts and international recruitment agents worldwide, including those in Kenya.
However, the situation worsened when US embassies paused new visa appointment scheduling for over three weeks during the critical May–August processing window.
Even after the pause, delays persisted because of expanded social media screening requirements now applied to all student visa categories (F, M, and J).
Professor Glass projected that the disruptions could result in 80,000 to 145,000 fewer visa appointments between June and August 2025, potentially translating into a 7–11% drop in international student enrolments this fall.
Also Read: US Embassy in Kenya Announces Changes in Visa Collection
Financial Risks for US Universities
On the other hand, a June 2025 report from Moody’s has warned that US universities heavily dependent on international students are facing growing financial strain.
The most affected will be those where over 15% of students are from abroad, although institutions with weaker financial health may feel the impact even at lower thresholds.
“Evolving visa policies and deportations are diminishing the perception of the US as a prime destination.”
“The revenue impact will be sharpest for institutions already experiencing fiscal pressure,” Moody’s warned.
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