The fall of Berlin wall in 1989 marked the formal collapse of communism and the gradual globalization of liberalism. Two years later, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) dissolved, dramatically.
Wind the tape forward: On February 24, 2022, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin announced that Russia was going to invade Ukraine on grounds that his country didn’t feel safe from “constant threats” from modern Ukraine. A few hours later it did exactly that.
Those who know these things say Putin is motivated by different things. Some say that he wants to preserve Russian hegemony; others argue that he’s using the crisis in Ukraine to pass a memo to the octogenarian in Washington. I agree with both perspectives. I believe Putin, like a jilted ex-lover, is trying to lay claim to that which is no longer his.
The last time one of the so-called “superpowers” used its military infrastructure to breach the sovereign integrity of another country, we ended up with the greatest humanitarian crisis of our time.
As of September 11, 2022, nearly four million people had fled the war-torn eastern border of Ukraine to the neighboring countries – notably Poland. Some 5,827 others had died while 8,421 people were reported to have been injured according to The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR). So, as The Continent recently asked: what does this war really mean for Africa?
From an economic perspective, Africa cannot extricate itself from bearing the brunt of the expansionist crisis between Russia and Ukraine. Owing to the fact that Russia and Ukraine are major producers and exporters of commodities such as oil and wheat respectively, prices of these commodities have risen sharply.
African countries that import oil such as Kenya, Egypt and Ghana are experiencing a surge in oil prices due to the sanctions and restrictions imposed on Russia’s exports. The effect ripples to transport, electricity and gas whose costs exacerbate with that of oil.
Russia and Ukraine jointly contribute to 30 per cent of the global export for wheat. Egypt is the greatest importer of wheat with 70 per cent of it being sourced from Russia and Ukraine. The war has posed a threat to the food security in Egypt which is heavily dependent on wheat. It is not all gloom however, for all the African countries.
For oil exporters such as Nigeria and Angola, the crisis could be a blessing in disguise as they are set to rake profits from the rise in oil prices. Senegal, where 40 trillion cubic feet of gas were unearthed between 2014 and 2019, with production expected to start later this year, is poised to enjoy a ready market.
Tanzania on the other hand looks forward to attracting 30 billion dollars to embark on the construction of offshore liquefied natural gas projects in 2023.
Speaking at the European Union (EU)-African Union (AU) summit in February, Tanzanian President Samia Hassan mentioned that the conflict was sparking interest in the country’s gas reserves. The war has therefore, offered massive opportunities for oil and gas producing countries across the continent.
Apparently, no country is immune from the effects of this war. Owing to the fact that Kenya imports its oil and, the surge in oil prices has gone past $100 a barrel, Kenyans are already facing higher oil prices which has led to increase in the cost of electricity.
Furthermore, Kenya imports approximately 75 per cent of its annual wheat consumption from both Russia and Ukraine. Global wheat and corn prices have increased by more than 5 per cent as a result of the conflict.
Equally, Russia also happens to be the fourth biggest buyer of Kenyan tea. The financial sanction on Russia has disrupted the market significantly. Russia imported tea worth Ksh6.2 billion in the 11 months leading to November 2021.
