Kenya Met Cautions of El Nino Effects as It Releases Weather Outlook for October-December

The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has released a weather outlook detailing expected patterns in the period between October and December 2025.

During the 11th National Climate Kenya Met Releases Rainfall and Weather Outlook for October-December 2025 Season Forum on September 5, 2025, the Kenya Met unveiled the official October–November–December (OND) 2025 climate outlook, highlighting regions expected to receive above-average rainfall.

According to the most recent update issued on September 2, 2025, by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is about a 55% chance of La Niña developing during September–November 2025, rising to 60% in October–December 2025.

However, the distribution of rainfall is expected to be poor, with prolonged dry spells and isolated storms in some areas.

Most of the Northeast, Southeastern Lowlands, and the Coastal region are expected to experience below-average rainfall.

The South and Central Rift Valley, much of the Lake Victoria region, the Highlands east of the Rift Valley—including Nairobi—along with isolated areas in Kajiado and parts of western Samburu and Marsabit counties, are likely to receive near to below-average rainfall.

Meanwhile, the Highlands west of the Rift Valley and parts of Northwestern Kenya are projected to receive above-average rainfall.

Detailed Weather Outlook

1. Highlands West of the Rift Valley (Kisii, Nyamira, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, West Pokot, Elgeyo Marakwet, Nandi, Kericho, Bomet, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, and western Baringo)
Rainfall is expected to be near to slightly above the long-term seasonal average, with fair to good distribution and occasional storms.

2. Lake Victoria Basin (Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, and southern Busia)
Rainfall is likely to be near to slightly below the long-term average, except in northern Busia where it may be near to slightly above average. Distribution is expected to be poor to fair, with occasional storms.

3. Central and South Rift Valley (Nakuru, Narok, and parts of Baringo)
Rainfall is expected to be near to slightly below the long-term average, with poor to fair distribution and occasional storms.

4. Northwestern Kenya

• Turkana County: Occasional rainfall is expected, near to slightly above the long-term average, but prolonged dry spells are likely, and rainfall distribution will be poor.

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• Samburu County: Rainfall is expected to be near to slightly below average in western Samburu and below average in the rest of the county, with prolonged dry spells and poorly distributed rainfall.

5. Highlands East of the Rift Valley (including Nairobi area) (Nairobi, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, Meru, Nyandarua, Embu, Tharaka Nithi)
Rainfall is expected to have breaks (dry spells) throughout the season. Cumulative rainfall is likely near to below average in Nairobi, Kiambu, Nyandarua, parts of Murang’a and Nyeri, and below average elsewhere. Distribution is poor to fair, with occasional storms possible.

6. South-Eastern Lowlands (Kitui, Makueni, Taita Taveta, southeastern Kajiado, Tana River, central and eastern Machakos)
Rainfall will be intermittent, with total amounts below the long-term average. Prolonged dry spells are likely, and rainfall distribution is expected to be poor in space and time.

7. North-Eastern Counties (Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, eastern Marsabit)
Rainfall is expected to be occasional and below the long-term average, with prolonged dry spells and poor spatial and temporal distribution.

8. Coastal Counties (Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu, Kwale, and coastal Tana River)
Rainfall is expected to occur with intermittent breaks, but total amounts are likely below the seasonal average, with prolonged dry spells and occasional storms.

Also Read: Kenya Met Lists Areas to Receive Rainfall During First Week of September

Kenya Met Releases Weather Outlook

Rainfall Onset and Cessation

• In some regions, rainfall is expected to continue from September 2025.

• Central Kenya and Nairobi are likely to see rainfall starting in the 3rd to 4th week of October 2025.

• In Turkana County, the onset is undefined, with occasional rainfall spreading from September.

• The Coastal Strip is expected to start receiving rain in the 3rd to 4th week of November 2025, with occasional showers in October.

• In the South Rift Valley (Narok), rainfall is expected to begin in the 4th week of October and continue into the 1st week of November 2025, with some continuation into January 2026.

• The Southeastern Lowlands may start seeing rainfall in the 3rd to 4th week of November 2025, while Northeastern Counties have an undefined onset.

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Also Read: Kenya Met Warns of Extreme Cold in Nairobi and Other Areas in Five-Day Forecast

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Drought Risk
The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) indicates an elevated risk of below-average rainfall across much of Kenya. The probability of entering the mild drought (alert) phase is projected at 55–90%, compared to the usual 46%, particularly in eastern and central regions.

Additionally, the risk of severe drought is projected at 20–55%, up from the normal 16%, with the highest likelihood in the eastern sector. 

Weather Temperature Outlook

Temperatures are expected to be warmer than average across most parts of the country, with central and eastern regions having higher probabilities of warmer-than-average conditions.

Only a few areas in the western sector may experience near- or cooler-than-average temperatures.

The KMD advises residents, farmers, and relevant authorities to monitor weather updates closely and take appropriate measures to manage potential drought and rainfall variability during the OND 2025 season.

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