Is Africa’s Youth Bulge a Demographic Dividend or Curse?

The UN DESA shows Africa’s population will grow by 154 percent from 1.49 billion in January 2024 (equivalent to 18.3 percent of world population) to 3.8 billion in January of the year 2100 (equivalent to 37.3 percent of global population). The continent’s   median age will rise by 82.8 percent from 19.2 years in July 2024 to 35.1 years by 2100. Notably, key demographic drivers between 2024 and 2100 includes population growth rate fall from 2.37 percent to merely 0.36 percent. The fertility rate in Africa (live births per woman) will drop by 49.8 percent from 4.02 to 2.02. Improvements in healthcare will see the infant mortality rate (infant deaths per 1,000 live births) drop by 64.5 percent from 62 to 22. Life expectancy at birth will rise by 17 percent from 64 to 74.9 years.

A country is said to have a youth population bulge in its population pyramid if the number of youths aged between 15-24 years rise beyond 20 percent of its total population.

The youth population bulge can be a demographic dividend (youths as opportunities of a large skilled innovative workforce and market for goods).

It can also be a demographic curse (challenges of high youth unemployment, poverty, inequality, and urban social- political unrest).

According to UN Office of the Special Adviser on Africa, the number of African youths in the 15 to 24 age group between 2023 and 2030 will grow by 20 percent.

Between 2023 and 2050, it will grow by 63 per cent. Over 2023 and 2100 it will grow by 94 percent.

For the period between 2023 and 2030, the world’s 15-24 years old youths will grow by 6 percent. Between 2023 and 2050, this age group will grow by 5 percent globally.

It will however decelerate capriciously between 2023 and 2100 to negative 4 percent.

Africa Youth NEETs

The African Development Bank estimates that almost 12 million young Africans join the job market every year.

Of these, only 3 million get formal decently paying and more stable jobs. The rest 9 million are either absorbed in the informal sector or are youths Not in Employment, Education or Training (NEETs).

Also Read: The Next Superpower Is Not a Country, It Is Africa’s Youth

According to ILO, Africa’s youth NEETs is at 77.9 million in 2025 with its youth NEETs rate at a high of 26.1%.

In contrast, the world’s youth NEETs will reach 276.4 million in 2025 while its youths NEETs rate is lower at 21.8%.

In 2024, the lower paying and unstable informal sector employment globally was projected at 2,027.6 million while its associated informality rate stood at 57.8%.

Conversely, Africa’s informal employment is estimated to have reached 439.9 million and informality rate at a high of 83.1%.

Due to these vulnerabilities, Africa has a disproportionately higher share of the world’s Extreme Working Poverty (<US$2.15 PPP per day) with 148.9 million (61.8 percent) of the 241.1 million globally in 2023.

The Share of Extreme Working Poverty (<US$2.15 PPP per day) for the world stood at a low of 6.9 percent as opposed to Africa’s, which was at an extreme high of 29 percent.

Arab Spring- Youth Urban Social Unrest

The high number of youth NEETs and insufficient job creation among another factors ignited youth led urban social unrest in the First Arab Spring, the Arab Winter and the second Arab Spring.

Due to the dearth of meaningful opportunities to lead a decent life, the youths are not invested in their countries.

They have little or zero net worth, have not accumulated assets they may need to protect and have nothing worthwhile to lose.

The vast majority may unfortunately not care if their countries burn. Many could be desperate, feel condemned and lack the abundance of hope in their government’s ability to astronomically expand opportunities for them. Life is for the living here and now.

Countries with low per capita incomes, low median age, high NEETs, and high Gini coefficient inequality are the most prone to youth uprisings.

Also Read: The Next Superpower Is Not a Country, It Is Africa’s Youth

They must invest more in radically expanding opportunities and hope for their youth. Burundi has exceptionally low GDP per capita (current US$) at $193 in 2023.

UN DESA forecast Central African Republic’s median age at 14.5 years in 2025, Somali 15.6 years, and DRC 15.8 years.

Somalia has the highest share of youth aged 15-24 NEETs at 43.9 percent. South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe have above average Gini coefficients reported by World Bank at 63 ,51.5 and 50.3, respectively.

Arab Spring wave  

In North Africa, the self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi triggered protests in Tunisia which overthrew the government of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali on 14 January 2011.

Major protests over unemployment, cost of living, corruption, Hogra (repression of freedom of speech) forced the government Algeria’s President Abdelaziz Bouteflika to lift a 19-year-old state of emergency.

King Mohammed VI of Morocco ceded powers of forming a government to a Prime Minister after a referendum on a new constitution.

President Omar al-Bashir of Sudan was forced to announce he will not vie as the ruling National Congress party presidential candidate in the 2015 elections which he reneged until he was ousted in 2019.

In Egypt, two governments of Hosni Mubarak and Mohamed Morsi were overthrown. In Libya, the government of Muammar Gaddafi was overthrown, and civil war continues to date.

The July 2022 Sri Lankan Aragalaya Protests against severe macro-economic instability across all parameters ousted the government of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa.

Bangladesh’s June 2024 Student–People’s uprising on public sector job quotas led by Students Against Discrimination overthrew the government of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

Kenya’s Case

In June 2024, the social media savvy Generation Z youths (born between 1997 and 2012) in Kenya overran the National Parliament.

This forced the government to withdraw and nullify the rejected 2024/25 Finance Bill. President William Ruto dismissed nearly all cabinet members and finally formed a broad-based government to buffer legitimacy and public trust.

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