Kenyan Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) are cautiously optimistic about the economy, warning that growth in 2025 will not translate into new jobs.
At the same time, they fear that US trade tariffs and policy changes under the new Trump administration could hurt exports and consumer demand.
The Central Bank of Kenya’s July 2025 CEOs Survey shows that firms are reporting higher growth prospects for their companies, sectors, and the Kenyan economy over the next 12 months.
However, the optimism is downplayed by concerns around employment, taxation, and global trade tensions.
Kenyan CEOs on the Prediction of Employment Ahead
The survey indicates that firms are not in a rush to hire new workers, despite expecting improved performance in the coming quarters.
When reviewing business activity in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the first quarter, the CEOs noted that the number of full-time employees remained unchanged.
“The number of full-time employees remained largely unchanged across sectors,” the report indicates.
At the same time, looking ahead, the outlook remains unchanged.
“All indicators of business activity show improvement except the number of full-time employees, which remained largely unchanged,” the report adds.
Although agriculture, tourism, ICT, and services expect better demand and sales, hiring remains paused.
Also Read: 1,000 CEOs Advise Ruto’s Govt on How to Revive Economy
US Tariffs Cause Worry Among Industry Leaders
On the other hand, the Kenyan executives have noted that they are concerned about global trade changes.
According to the survey,the majority of the respondents expect to be impacted by the recent US trade tariffs and policy changes.
“More respondents anticipate being affected by the recent US trade tariffs and policy changes through higher import costs for inputs and finished goods, reduced export earnings to the US after the expiry of AGOA, and increased production costs from inflationary pressures,” CBK noted in the report.
Moreover, the report warns that they also expect lower consumer demand due to reduced disposable incomes from declining profits and job losses, as well as secondary effects on local businesses reliant on affected clients.
“For instance, the hotel industry reports reduced business, with fewer conference bookings from NGOs and other donor-funded programs,” the report adds.
Also, the report lists elevated cost of doing business, reduced consumer demand, taxation, and levies as some of the key factors that could affect industry growth over the next 12 months.
Respondents reported improved growth prospects for the Kenyan economy for the next 12 months.
However, firms identified elevated cost of doing business, reduced consumer demand, taxation, and levies as some of the key factors that could constrain growth in the next 12 months.”
Also Read: Why Kenyan CEOs Fear Their Companies May Close Within 10 Years
Warning on Hiked Food Prices
At the same time, the Kenyan executives warned that recent global shocks could drive up the cost of food and essential goods.
The survey notes that prices of goods and services purchased are expected to be lower, supported by low inflation, while prices of goods sold are impacted by muted demand and stiff competition, leading firms to discount their prices to retain customers.
This means that while consumers are benefiting from discounted prices now, firms are increasingly worried about what lies ahead.
Also, the effects of higher energy costs and new global trade barriers are expected to impact production and supply chains, raising the risk of more expensive food and basic commodities in the coming months.
Prices of goods and services purchased are expected to be lower, supported by low inflation, while prices of goods sold are impacted by muted demand and stiff competition, leading firms to discount their prices to retain customers.
However, concerns about future price developments remain due to the recent increase in energy prices and the impact of higher global tariffs, which have affected the prices of raw materials.
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