More than 1,000 Kenyan Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) from the private sector are cautiously optimistic about the economy. However, they warn that as job losses continue and incomes shrink, consumer spending is expected to decline.
According to the Central Bank of Kenya’s September 2025 CEOs Survey, leaders from industries ranging from agriculture and manufacturing to retail and services cautioned that declining profits and widespread unemployment are eroding households’ disposable incomes.
The survey conducted between September 8 and September 19, 2025, showed that CEOs linked the slowdown in demand and job losses to the ripple effects of recent U.S. trade tariffs and policy changes.
Many anticipate being affected by higher import costs for inputs and finished goods, as well as reduced exports to the US after the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) expired.
Kenyan CEOs Warn of Reduced Spending Amid Job Losses and US Tariffs
They fear that these pressures, combined with shrinking domestic demand, could trigger secondary effects on local businesses dependent on affected clients.
“Most respondents anticipate being affected by the recent U.S. trade tariffs and policy changes through higher import costs for inputs and finished goods and reduced exports to the U.S. after the expiry of AGOA,” read the survey report.
“They also expect lower consumer demand due to reduced disposable incomes from declining profits and job losses, as well as secondary effects on local businesses reliant on affected clients.”
Also Read: Job Losses as Govt Shuts Down 109 Companies (FULL LIST)
The CBK report revealed that the hospitality industry has already reported reduced business, with fewer conference bookings from NGOs and other donor-funded programs.
According to respondents, the tourism, hotels, and restaurants sector is the most affected, with 32.7 percent of CEOs reporting negative consequences.
The manufacturing sector follows, with 22.4 percent of leaders citing higher costs and reduced export opportunities as key challenges.
Financial and professional services each accounted for 12.2 percent, reflecting moderate exposure to the changing trade environment.
Smaller shares of respondents noted effects in ICT and telecommunications and wholesale and retail trade (6.1 percent each), while agriculture reported the least impact at 4.1 percent.
Also Read: Kenyans to Pay More for Electricity as EPRA Raises Fuel and Forex Charges
Kenyan CEOs Expect No New Hiring as Prices Rise Moderately
The survey showed that the majority of Kenyan business leaders expect employment levels to remain stable over the coming months.
71.4 percent of CEOs indicated that they foresee no change in staffing, while 20.2 percent plan to increase employment.
However, 8.3 percent of respondents anticipate a reduction in their workforce.
At the same time, the survey indicates that prices of goods and services are expected to rise moderately, driven by higher input costs following global commodity trends.
Businesses may also face pressure to increase selling prices, even as they discount items during the festive season to retain customers.
Meanwhile, firms reported improved growth prospects for the Kenyan economy over the next 12 months, supported by continued macroeconomic stability, favorable weather conditions, seasonality factors, and expectations of better access to credit due to declining bank lending rates.
The majority of the respondents reported expectations of enhanced performance at the company level over the next 12 months.
Follow our WhatsApp Channel and X Account for real-time news updates.
