Kenyans in several parts of the country should prepare for changing weather conditions this week as the Kenya Met forecasts heavy showers and thunderstorms across dozens of counties.
The latest weekly forecast dated November 2, covering November 3 to 9, 2026, indicates that several regions will experience morning showers, afternoon thunderstorms, and night-time rainfall, while some parts of the country will continue to record high daytime temperatures.
“Rainfall is expected in parts of Baringo, Bomet, Bungoma, Busia, Elgeyo Marakwet, Embu, Garissa, Homa Bay, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kakamega, Kericho, Kiambu, Kilifi, Kirinyaga, Kisii, Kisumu, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Machakos, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Migori, Mombasa, Murang’a, Nairobi, Nakuru, Nandi, Narok, Nyamira, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Samburu, Siaya, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka-Nithi, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Vihiga, Wajir and West Pokot Counties,” the outlook stated.
Kenya Met has identified 47 counties expected to receive rainfall during the forecast period, with afternoon showers and thunderstorms likely in several counties across western Kenya, the Rift Valley, Nyanza, and parts of central Kenya.
Kenya Met Lists Counties Expected to Receive Morning Rains and Afternoon Thunderstorms
According to the department’s weather forecast, morning showers are expected in parts of Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Tana River and Lamu counties.
Morning rains are also likely in Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kiambu, Kirinyaga, Kitui, Machakos, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Murang’a, Nairobi, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Tharaka-Nithi and Wajir.
“Morning showers are expected in parts of Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Tana River and Lamu Counties.”
Meanwhile, sunny intervals are expected during the morning in parts of Baringo, Bomet, Bungoma, Busia, Elgeyo Marakwet, Garissa, Homa Bay, Kakamega, Kericho, Kisii, Kisumu, Laikipia, Migori, Nakuru, Nandi, Narok, Nyamira, Samburu, Siaya, Taita Taveta, Trans Nzoia, Turkana, Uasin Gishu, Vihiga and West Pokot.
Kenya Met forecasted afternoon showers and thunderstorms in parts of Baringo, Bomet, Bungoma, Busia, Elgeyo Marakwet, Homa Bay, Kakamega, Kericho, Kisii, Kisumu, Migori, Nakuru, Nandi, Narok, Nyamira, Samburu, Siaya, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Vihiga and West Pokot.
Afternoon showers are also expected in parts of Embu, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kiambu, Kirinyaga, Kitui, Laikipia, Machakos, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Murang’a, Nairobi, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Tharaka-Nithi and Wajir.
Turkana County is expected to experience sunny intervals during the afternoon.
Night showers are likely in parts of Embu, Isiolo, Kiambu, Kirinyaga, Kitui, Machakos, Makueni, Meru, Murang’a, Nairobi, Nyandarua, Nyeri and Tharaka-Nithi.
Partly cloudy conditions are expected at night in several other counties, including Baringo, Bomet, Bungoma, Busia, Elgeyo Marakwet, Garissa, Homa Bay, Kajiado, Kakamega, Kericho, Kilifi, Kisii, Kisumu, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Mandera, Marsabit, Migori, Mombasa, Nakuru, Nandi, Narok, Nyamira, Samburu, Siaya, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Trans Nzoia, Turkana, Uasin Gishu, Vihiga, Wajir and West Pokot.
Kenya Met Predicts Temperatures Above 35°C
In addition to the expected rainfall, Kenya Met has warned of high daytime temperatures in parts of Garissa, Wajir, Tana River, Isiolo, Kilifi, Marsabit, Samburu and Turkana counties.
Also Read: Floods Hit Nairobi: Vehicles Stuck, Roads Cut Off as Questions Over El Niño Preps Emerge
Other towns expected to experience warm conditions include Nairobi and Kakamega at 31°C, and Kisumu, Kisii and Nakuru at 30°C.
Kenya Met has also forecast minimum night-time temperatures below 10°C in selected highland areas, including parts of Meru, Tharaka-Nithi, Nyeri, Nakuru and Kajiado counties.
El Niño Expected to Peak in December 2026
El Niño weather phenomenon is strengthening and is forecast to peak around December 2026, with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) projecting an exceptionally high likelihood of it persisting through February 2027.
The WMO expects sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean to reach approximately 3.8°C above average between November 2026 and January 2027, potentially making the event a very strong El Niño.
Heavy rainfall has already hit parts of Nairobi, with a downpour on Saturday, October 31, causing flash floods, disrupting traffic and leaving several vehicles stranded on flooded roads.
Also Read: Anxious Wait as WMO Issues New El Niño Forecast Extending Into 2027
The flooding occurred as Kenya Met forecast light to moderate rainfall across much of the country between October 31 and November 4, affecting the Coast, Central, Western, Rift Valley, Northern Kenya and Lake Victoria Basin regions.
For November 1 and 2, rainfall was forecast in 32 counties, while the November 2 to 3 outlook identified 29 counties expected to receive rain.
Kenya Met has warned that enhanced rainfall could trigger flash floods, riverine flooding and landslides, particularly in low-lying areas, poorly drained urban centers, coastal regions and highland areas.
The department has also cautioned that flooding could damage infrastructure and disrupt transport and agricultural activities.
Public health risks could also increase, as flooding can create conditions that favor the spread of waterborne and vector-borne diseases, including cholera, typhoid and malaria.
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