Kenya is among the nations likely to face a disruption in the supply of imported fertilizer due to the ongoing instability in the Strait of Hormuz.
About 20 percent of global energy supplies, with oil and gas shipments accounting for the largest share of traffic, are exported or imported through the shipping route.
The Strait of Hormuz accounts for 38 per cent of the global crude oil, 29 per cent of Liquefied petroleum gas, 19 per cent of Liquefied natural gas, and 13 per cent of chemicals, including fertilizers.
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has warned that the ongoing war in the Middle East and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger fertilizer shortages, higher prices, and wider economic pressure for import-dependent countries.
“About one third of global seaborne fertilizer trade, roughly 16 million tonnes, passes through the strait,” UNCTAD stated.
According to UNCTAD, about 26 percent of Kenya’s fertilizer imports pass between Oman and Iran. Countries such as Sudan and Sri Lanka face even greater exposure.
Kenya Fertilizer Import
In 2024, 26% of Kenya’s fertilizers imported by sea originated from the Persian Gulf region, placing the nation among the top ten countries most reliant on this specific trade route for its agricultural inputs, according to a report by the UNCTAD.
With the Kenyan fertilizer import percentage being 26, Sudan has 54 percent, and Sri Lanka has 36 percent of their fertilizer imports.
The decline in shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz from 100 ships daily before the conflict to just one or two tankers by mid-March 2026 due to security concerns will greatly affect fertilizer supplies.
As of early March 2026, ship transits through the Strait had come to a near halt, dropping by 97%, as shown in the report by the UNCTAD.
The decline in shipping will interrupt not only the Kenya fertilizer supply but also the agricultural sector that depends on the imported fertilizer.
China, among the significant fertilizer exporters, has effectively halted outflows of most fertilizer types to secure domestic supplies and stabilize prices.
Ongoing conflict in the Middle East has resulted in a skyrocketing of the prices of fertilizers worldwide. Green Market data now shows that prices of urea, the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer, have increased to nearly 40% since the US-Israeli attacks in Iran began.
Also Read: Kenyan Businesses Hit as Shipping Charges Soar Amid Middle East Tensions
Countries Likely to Face Fertilizer Crises with the Percentage of import
- Kenya- 24%.
- Sudan has 54%.
- Tanzania- 31%.
- Somalia- 30%.
- Mozambique- 22%.
- Sri Lanka-36%.
- Pakistan-27%.
- Thailand -27%.
- New Zealand – 26%
67 percent of fertilizer transported by sea from the Gulf region is urea. Diammonium phosphate imported is 20 percent, and ammonium dihydrogen phosphate is 9 percent.
Also Read: EPRA Announces Fuel Prices for March and April Cycle
The Effect of the Middle East on Fuel Prices in Kenya
In addition to the Middle East Conflict causing challenges to the Kenya fertilizer supply, the conflict has also affected the oil prices, not only in Kenya but globally.
Global oil prices have continued to rise in the past few days ahead of the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) fuel price review, raising concerns about a possible increase in fuel prices in Kenya.
“The conflict in the Middle East is having significant impacts on global oil and gas markets, with major implications for energy security, energy affordability, and the global economy for oil,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said.
Brent crude rose by more than 9% in Asian trading to surpass $100 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures jumped toward $95 per barrel on March 12, marking a second straight session of gains.
