The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), once the dominant political force in several regions of Kenya, is grappling with declining influence as it struggles to attract candidates even in areas that were long considered its strongholds.

This trend has become increasingly evident in counties such as Homa Bay, Migori, Kisumu, Siaya, and parts of Western Kenya, where ODM candidates previously enjoyed near-automatic victories but now face resistance from aspirants and voters alike.

Key Reasons

Internal Party Processes

Many aspirants feel ODM’s nomination or primary process is no longer transparent or fair, with allegations including the selection of favourites, the manipulation of delegate lists, and the imposition of candidates without clear and transparent consultation.

When people believe the system is rigged or works against them (especially at the grass-roots/ward level), potential candidates may choose to sit out, run as independents, or switch parties.

Voters in ODM strongholds have grown increasingly frustrated with being sidelined in decision-making and seeing unpopular candidates imposed on them.

This has led to the ODM voters watching promising leaders leave the party due to unfair treatment.

“In ODM zones like Homa Bay, winning the nomination is winning the seat. That makes primaries bloodier than the general election,” political analyst Herman Manyora noted.

A youth in Ndhiwa lost his palm in a machete attack during ODM grassroots elections, while In Bondo (Siaya), rival groups clashed during ODM grassroots elections, leaving six people injured.

The violence in both instances stemmed from suspected rigging at the respective ODM party offices.

In Migori County, another ODM stronghold, the county security committee identified over 10 gangs linked to political violence, and Migori was listed as a hotspot by NCIC.

Perceived Marginalization of Southern Luo / Non-Siaya/Kisumu Areas

ODM’s top leadership, including Raila Odinga, hails from the Jo-Alego clan in Bondo, Siaya. This has led to perceptions that Siaya and Kisumu dominate party decisions and candidate endorsements.

Southern Luo regions like Homa Bay and Migori feel marginalized in ODM’s nomination processes and candidates from these areas often accuse the party of favouring aspirants from Siaya and Kisumu.

The perception of favoritism has led to defections and independent candidacies, weakening ODM’s grip on these counties.

Competition from Other Parties and Alliances

ODM’s decline in its former strongholds has been accelerated by growing competition from rival parties and emerging alliances.

While ODM remains a key player in the Azimio la Umoja coalition, it no longer enjoys uncontested dominance at the grassroots.

Smaller coalition partners have increasingly fielded their own candidates, challenging ODM in local races and splitting the vote.

In counties like Homa Bay and Migori, parties allied to Azimio have positioned themselves as alternatives for aspirants frustrated by ODM’s nomination disputes and favouritism.

At the same time, President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) has aggressively expanded into ODM zones.

By recruiting disgruntled ODM leaders and providing financial and logistical backing, UDA has gained a foothold in areas once considered unreachable.

Even where UDA candidates do not win, their presence disrupts ODM’s monopoly and forces costly campaigns.

Independent candidates have also become a major threat, particularly in Luo Nyanza and Western Kenya. Many aspirants now choose to run without party affiliation, appealing to voters cast down by ODM’s internal wrangles.

Changing voter expectations

In the past, loyalty to Raila Odinga and the party’s liberation legacy guaranteed support, but today voters demand tangible results, accountability, and visible development.

Also Read: Disruptor, Reformer, Dreamer: The making of Ruto’s legacy

In recent primaries, many incumbent ODM leaders, including MCAs and MPs, were rejected by voters for poor performance.

This reflects a growing desire for leaders who deliver services rather than relying on party loyalty or personal ties.

Younger voters, in particular, want transparent processes and leaders who address unemployment, infrastructure, and economic growth.

When ODM fails to meet these expectations, voters either back independent candidates or shift to rivals like UDA, which positions itself as a party of change.

Loss of Party Voice

Rivalries driven by county interests, clan affiliations, and competing political ambitions have created deep divisions in ODM, weakening the party’s cohesion.

Since winning an ODM nomination often guarantees electoral victory, the fiercest competition happens within the party, not against external rivals.

In Homa Bay, for instance, political violence is not about ODM vs. other parties, it’s about ODM vs. ODM, with factions fighting over control of county resources and leadership positions.

Also Read: The Billionaires of Kenya: Five Sons of Moi and 7 Companies They Run

Sub-clans like Jo-Karachuonyo, Jo-Kano, Jo-Alego, and Jo-Sakwa compete for dominance in constituencies such as Rangwe, Kasipul, and Suba.

The party has also struggled to maintain a clear ideological stance. Once known as the voice of opposition and reform, ODM’s cooperation with the ruling government on key issues has blurred its identity.

Many supporters now question what ODM truly represents, leading to disillusionment and defections.

This loss of clarity and unity has made the party less attractive to both candidates and its traditional base.

Follow our WhatsApp Channel and X Account for real-time news updates.