UDA has regained its position as Kenya’s most popular political party with 25 per cent support, while Linda Mwananchi has emerged as the second-largest political outfit on 17 per cent, pushing ODM into third place according to a new TIFA survey released on November 12, 2026.
The findings show a major shift in party support compared to TIFA’s previous surveys.
UDA increased its support from 17 per cent in June 2026 to 25 per cent in November, an eight-point rise that places President William Ruto’s party back at the top of the political standings.
Linda Mwananchi, which was not among the major parties in previous TIFA measurements, entered the rankings with 17 per cent support, ahead of ODM and establishing itself as the second most-supported political outfit in the country.
Huge Upset for ODM
ODM recorded the sharpest decline among the leading parties.
The party’s support fell from 20 per cent in June 2026 to 10 per cent in November, representing a 10-point drop over five months and reducing its backing by half during the period.
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DCP ranked fourth with 12 per cent support.
The party has grown steadily over the past year, rising from six per cent in September 2025 to 11 per cent in May 2026 before reaching 12 per cent in the latest survey.
Wiper registered five per cent support, down from nine per cent recorded in May 2026. Jubilee stood at four per cent, having dropped from 11 per cent in May.
Among smaller political formations grouped under the “Other” category, support stood at zero per cent in the November survey, down from seven per cent in June.
The survey also found that many Kenyans remain undecided or do not identify with any political party.
Twenty-eight per cent of respondents fell under the “Undecided/None” category.
UDA Recovery Amid ODM Fall
TIFA’s recent poll marks a rebound for UDA after support levels had declined from 33 per cent in August 2022 to 15 per cent in September 2025.
The ruling party remained at 15 per cent in November 2025, rose to 17 per cent in June 2026 and has now climbed to 25 per cent.
The gains place UDA eight percentage points ahead of Linda Mwananchi and 15 points ahead of ODM.
ODM began the period following the 2022 General Election as the most popular opposition-linked political party, commanding 29 per cent support in August 2022.
Its support later declined to 11 per cent in September 2025 before recovering to 18 per cent in November 2025 and 20 per cent in June 2026.
The latest TIFA findings show that trend has reversed sharply, with ODM dropping to 10 per cent and falling behind both UDA and Linda Mwananchi.
The poll further indicates that support among Kenya’s leading political parties remains fluid ahead of the 2027 General Election, with substantial movements recorded across nearly all major parties compared to earlier surveys.
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According to the survey, the combined support for UDA, Linda Mwananchi, ODM and DCP stands at 64 per cent, while more than a quarter of respondents remain undecided or unaffiliated with any political party.
Hopes of United Opposition
The survey also found growing optimism among opposition supporters about the chances of a united front ahead of the 2027 General Election.
According to TIFA, 57 per cent of opposition supporters said it was “very likely” that leaders linked to the Linda Mwananchi Movement and the United Opposition/Ukombozi coalition would agree on a common political position before the election.
Another 22 per cent said such cooperation was “somewhat likely”.
Only eight per cent considered unity “not very likely”, while seven per cent said it was “not likely at all”. Six per cent of respondents said they were not sure.
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