The Kenya Meteorological Department has issued a seven-day heavy rainfall alert for several parts of the country, warning that some areas could record more than 120 millimeters of rain between July 28 and August 3. In the latest forecast, Kenya Met indicates that western Kenya and parts of the Rift Valley will experience the highest rainfall amounts, raising concerns over possible flooding in low-lying and flood-prone areas.
According to the weather outlook, counties around the Lake Victoria Basin, western highlands and sections of the central Rift Valley are expected to receive moderate to heavy rainfall throughout the week.
Areas likely to receive significant rainfall include Busia, Bungoma, Kakamega, Vihiga, Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Nandi, Trans Nzoia and Uasin Gishu.
The forecast shows some locations in these regions could receive between 50 and more than 120 millimeters of rainfall over the seven-day period.
Kenya Met Lists Flood Risk Areas
Kenya Met’s cumulative rainfall outlook places western Kenya among the wettest regions in the country, with rainfall expected on several days during the forecast period.
The department warned that prolonged rainfall could increase the likelihood of flooding in vulnerable areas, particularly those located near major rivers and low-lying zones.
Counties surrounding the Lake Victoria Basin are expected to receive the highest rainfall totals, with parts of Busia, Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay and Migori likely to record sustained rainfall through the week.
Rainfall is also expected across Bungoma, Kakamega, Vihiga, Nandi, Kericho, Kisii, Nyamira, Trans Nzoia and Uasin Gishu, where weekly totals are projected to range from moderate to heavy.
The forecast further shows moderate rainfall extending into portions of Nakuru, Baringo, Elgeyo Marakwet, Narok, Nyandarua, Laikipia and sections of the Mt Kenya region.
While western Kenya is expected to remain wet, much of northern and northeastern Kenya is likely to stay largely dry.
Counties including Wajir, Mandera and large parts of Garissa, Marsabit and Turkana are forecast to receive little or no rainfall during the period.
The weather department expects only isolated showers in a few parts of the Coast and southeastern Kenya.
Cold Conditions to Continue
In addition to the rainfall forecast, Kenya Met has projected cold nights and early mornings across parts of the Central Highlands, the Rift Valley and the Mt Kenya region.
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Minimum temperatures in several highland areas are expected to range between 8 and 15 degrees Celsius, with some isolated locations recording temperatures below 8 degrees Celsius.
The cold conditions are likely to be experienced in Nyandarua, Nyeri, Laikipia, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Embu, Meru, Nakuru, Kericho and Bomet counties.
Nairobi is forecast to experience cool mornings and evenings, accompanied by cloudy conditions and occasional light showers.
Temperatures in the capital are expected to range between 10 and 25 degrees Celsius.
The forecast also shows a sharp contrast between different parts of the country, with northern and northeastern counties expected to remain considerably warmer.
Daytime temperatures in Turkana, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera and parts of Garissa are projected to range between 30 and 35 degrees Celsius, with some areas likely to record even higher temperatures.
KMD said the forecast covers the period between July 28 and August 3 and advised the public to keep track of weather updates, particularly in areas expected to receive heavy rainfall and those prone to flooding.
Kenya has begun activating a nationwide preparedness plan ahead of a forecast El Niño event later this year, with the government setting up a special Cabinet committee, preparing evacuation plans, reinforcing roads and bridges, and stockpiling emergency supplies amid warnings that the weather phenomenon could trigger severe flooding similar to the devastating 2023-2024 rains.
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