The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) has forecast light to moderate rainfall in several parts of the country between Sunday, October 4 and Thursday, October 8, as Kenya enters the October-November-December (OND) El Niño rainfall season.
The forecast covers counties across the Coast, northeastern, eastern, central, western, and Rift Valley regions, with some areas expected to experience afternoon showers, thunderstorms, and lightning.
In Nairobi, light morning rains are expected from Monday to Thursday, followed by light afternoon showers and sunny intervals. Light showers are also expected at night throughout the period, with maximum temperatures ranging between 27°C and 29°C and minimum temperatures of 14°C to 16°C.
KMSA Releases Detailed Weather Forecast As Kenya Enters El Nino Season
Along the Coast, Mombasa is expected to receive moderate showers on Sunday and Wednesday mornings, with light showers on other days. Nighttime showers will also occur, with temperatures ranging from 22°C to 30°C.
KMSA noted that Kwale and Kilifi are expected to receive light to moderate showers, while Tana River will experience sunny intervals in the morning and light afternoon showers. Lamu will have light morning and nighttime showers with sunny intervals in the afternoon.
Taita Taveta is expected to see sunny intervals alongside light to moderate showers, with temperatures reaching 32°C.
In northeastern Kenya, Garissa is forecast to have sunny intervals and occasional light afternoon showers, with temperatures reaching 34°C.
Wajir is expected to receive light morning rains and sunny intervals in the afternoon, with maximum temperatures of up to 36°C.
Mandera will remain mostly warm, with sunny intervals, occasional light rains, and temperatures reaching 38°C.
Eastern and Central Regions
In eastern Kenya, Meru is expected to receive light morning rains and afternoon showers, with temperatures between 15°C and 27°C. Tharaka-Nithi and Embu will experience light morning rains, afternoon showers and moderate nighttime showers.
Additionally, KMSA said Kitui will have light morning rains followed by sunny intervals and occasional afternoon showers. Machakos is expected to receive light morning rains, sunny intervals and light afternoon showers, with moderate to light nighttime showers. Makueni will experience sunny intervals and light showers later in the day.
Central Kenya will also receive rainfall during the forecast period. Nyandarua is expected to have sunny intervals and occasional light showers, with temperatures ranging between 5°C and 26°C. Nyeri will experience light to moderate rains and showers.
Also Read: Kenya Met Reveals When Above-Normal October-December Rains Will Start and End Across Counties
Rift Valley, Western Regions
In the Rift Valley, Turkana will remain mostly sunny and hot, with temperatures reaching 38°C. West Pokot, Samburu, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Nandi, Baringo and Laikipia are expected to experience sunny intervals, with some areas receiving light to moderate afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Additionally, KMSA noted that Nakuru will have sunny intervals in the morning and light afternoon showers, with maximum temperatures of up to 30°C. Narok and Kajiado are expected to experience sunny intervals and occasional light showers.
Across western Kenya, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma and Busia are expected to experience sunny intervals in the morning and afternoon showers.
Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Kisii and Nyamira are also forecast to receive light to moderate afternoon showers, with thunderstorms and lightning possible in some areas.
Also Read: Kenya Met Explains How 2026 El Niño Compares to 1997
GFS Forecast For Kenya
The Global Forecast System (GFS) model predicts generally mild weather across Kenya next week, with mostly light and scattered showers expected in several areas.
Daytime conditions are expected to feature light cloud cover, with intermittent showers beginning around Wednesday, October 7. The rainfall could become slightly more widespread by Saturday, October 10, with scattered afternoon thunderstorms possible in some regions.
Temperatures are expected to remain moderate throughout the week, with daytime highs averaging 25°C to 28°C, while nighttime temperatures are forecast to fall to 14°C to 15°C.
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