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The Kenya Meteorological Department’s (KMD) weather outlook for the October–December 2025 short rains season has prompted key government sectors and partners to issue advisories, warning of heavy rains and drought conditions across the country.
According to KMD, the October to December (OND) 2025 season will bring a mix of enhanced rainfall in some regions and suppressed rainfall in others, creating potential risks and opportunities across different sectors.
Key agencies have since outlined expected impacts and mitigation measures to guide counties, institutions, and communities.
Key Weather Advisories
Disaster Risk Management Sector
Authorities from the Disaster and Risk Management (DRM) department have warned of possible displacement of people and livestock due to resource-based conflicts, human–wildlife clashes, crop failure, and increased malnutrition among children under five.
Additionally, water scarcity, wildfires are anticipated in the case of drought.
In its advisory, the DRM recommended mitigation measures including drilling of boreholes, rehabilitation of water infrastructure, peace dialogues, disease surveillance, crop and livestock insurance, food aid, and civic education.
Other sector-specific advisories include:
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Advocacy with the National Treasury to allocate funds in advance to counties likely to be hardest hit by drought, using the climate outlook as a planning tool.
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Engagement with UN agencies to support county contingency plans for anticipatory action.
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Collaboration with the State Department for Special Programmes to pre-position food and non-food items in highly vulnerable counties.
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Continued coordination among stakeholders for joint assessments and planning throughout the season, ensuring timely interventions based on real-time feedback.
Also Read: Kenya Met Cautions of El Nino Effects at It Releases Weather Outlook for October-December
Food Security and Nutrition Sector
On food security, experts warned that rains could worsen food insecurity in arid areas while boosting production in well-watered regions.
At the same time, malnutrition, food shortages, and post-harvest losses remain major threats.
The Ministry of Agriculture, WFP, FAO, county governments, and partners recommend distribution of drought-resistant seeds, cash transfers, climate-smart farming practices, targeted nutrition support, and proper post-harvest handling training.
Health Sector Issue Weather Advisory
On its part, the Ministry of Health has cautioned about potential outbreaks of malaria, Rift Valley Fever, cholera, typhoid, and other climate-sensitive diseases.
Disruption of health services as a result of flooding was also highlighted as a major concern.
Mitigation strategies include disease surveillance, use of treated mosquito nets, sensitization campaigns such as Epuka Uchafu Afya Nyumbani, stockpiling medical supplies, setting up medical camps, and activating public health emergency operations in all 47 counties.
Nutrition programmes targeting undernourished children are also planned to counter malnutrition risks.
Water Sector
The State Department for Water and Sanitation, alongside the Water Resources Authority, also cautioned that some areas may face water scarcity while others will be exposed to riverine and flash floods.
Mitigation measures include water trucking, conservation campaigns, mapping flood-prone areas, and promoting rainwater harvesting to reduce over-dependence on groundwater.
Agencies such as the Water Resources Authority (WRA), State Department for Water and Sanitation, and county governments will spearhead the efforts.
Also Read: UNICEF Kenya Seek Funds to Support Families Affected by Drought
Energy Sector
The Ministry of Energy and Petroleum highlighted mixed impacts on hydropower generation.
Heavy rainfall in western Kenya is expected to boost hydropower generation, while drier conditions in eastern Kenya could reduce water levels in dams, lowering energy output. The season could also damage power infrastructure and affect biomass fuel supplies.
KenGen, KETRACO, and Kenya Power will prioritize rapid response to infrastructure damage, increased reliance on geothermal and western dams, and promotion of clean cooking technologies such as efficient stoves.
Environment and Forestry Sector
The Ministry of Climate Change and Forestry, alongside the Kenya Forest Service, noted that while the rains will support soil conservation, forest growth, and water recharge, there is a risk of fuel forest fires, deforestation, biodiversity loss, and pest outbreaks.
The sector has called for tree planting, hotspot mapping, awareness campaigns, and improved wildlife migration corridors to minimize conflicts.
The rains are projected to reduce soil erosion, improve food security, and enhance water recharge, but they could also fuel forest fires, pest outbreaks, and human–wildlife conflicts in some regions.
The Kenya Forest Service (KFS), KEFRI, and county governments have proposed tree planting, forest health monitoring, wildlife migration corridors, fencing of protected areas, and campaigns against deforestation.
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