CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten delivered a direct assessment on May 13, 2026, warning Democrats that voter dissatisfaction with President Trump has not produced the expected gains for the party ahead of the November midterm elections.
Enten appeared on CNN News Central and examined the latest polling data. A recent CNN survey shows 77 percent of Americans blame Trump for the rise in living costs.
Trump’s approval ratings remain low amid ongoing concerns over inflation and foreign policy decisions, including military actions tied to Iran. Despite these conditions, the generic congressional ballot reveals only a modest Democratic advantage.
Poll Numbers Show Limited Democratic Edge
According to the CNN poll, Democrats lead Republicans by 3 percentage points on the generic ballot, 45 percent to 42 percent. This lead sits within the margin of error.
Broader polling aggregates show Democrats ahead by 3 to 6 points nationally. This represents a decline from a 6-point advantage recorded in March 2025.
“You would have thought that the Democrats’ lead would expand on the generic congressional ballot. It didn’t happen,” Enten said, as reported by Mediaite.
Host John Berman highlighted the 77 percent figure, blaming Trump for higher costs, and asked if Democrats were gaining from it. Enten replied that the data showed no significant expansion of the Democratic edge.
The numbers indicate Republicans remain firmly in contention for House seats despite the president’s challenges.
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Enten noted that Democratic support has not grown as expected under these circumstances. The party holds a narrow lead, but it has narrowed over the past year rather than widened.
Voters Split on Economy and Party Trust
A key part of Enten’s analysis focused on voter sentiment toward both parties. Trump’s approval rating averages about 36 points underwater. Yet Democrats do not receive strong positive ratings either when voters evaluate the party directly.
On the question of which party is more trusted to manage the economy, registered voters are evenly split.
“Just because Donald Trump is unpopular doesn’t make Democrats popular,” Enten said. “And when you match Democrats against Republicans, all of a sudden it is a dead heat.”
This situation exists six months before the 2026 midterm elections. Republicans hold the majority in the House of Representatives. Redistricting completed in multiple states has created a structural advantage for Republicans, estimated at several seats in the chamber.
Why This Matters
Midterm elections have historically produced losses for the president’s party when economic conditions create widespread voter frustration. Rising living costs, inflation concerns, and overseas tensions typically provide clear openings for the opposition.
In this cycle, however, the translation from Trump’s low approval numbers into Democratic gains has been limited.
A narrow lead of 3 to 6 points on the generic ballot may not be enough for Democrats to overcome the post-redistricting map and secure control of the House.
Republicans can hold their majority or keep losses small if current trends continue. Democrats must turn general discontent with the administration into specific voter support and higher turnout.
Enten’s assessment serves as a reminder that political outcomes depend on more than one side’s weaknesses. With the economy remaining a central issue and time left for developments to shift public opinion, control of Congress remains in play. Both parties face important choices in the coming months on policy, messaging, and mobilization.
The November 2026 elections will determine whether dissatisfaction with President Trump produces a significant shift in House power or whether structural and enthusiasm factors allow Republicans to maintain their position.
