Democrats have flipped a Republican-held state House seat in Florida that includes President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence in a closely watched special election.
Democratic candidate Emily Gregory on Tuesday, March 24 evening, defeated President Trump-endorsed Republican Jon Maples with 51.1% of the vote to 48.9%, according to results reported by the Associated Press, with more than 95% of ballots counted.
The race, centered in Florida’s 87th State House District, marks a notable upset given the area’s recent voting history. Trump carried the district by roughly 11 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election.
The district spans parts of Palm Beach County along Florida’s Atlantic coast, including Palm Beach, North Palm Beach, South Palm Beach, and sections of West Palm Beach — areas that collectively form the political base surrounding the president’s Mar-a-Lago estate.
While Republicans have dominated recent statewide races in Florida, historical data show the district has been more competitive in past election cycles.
Trump narrowly won it by just 33 votes in 2016 and by half a percentage point in 2020, before expanding his margin significantly in 2024.
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Gregory’s win effectively overturns a seat that had been considered safely Republican in the most recent election cycle.
The first-time candidate will replace former Republican state Representative Mike Caruso, who vacated the seat in August 2025 after being appointed Palm Beach County Clerk of the Circuit Court and Comptroller by Governor Ron DeSantis.
Florida state campaigns focused on economy vs. experience
The closely fought race saw both candidates attract significant financial backing, with more than $1 million spent between the campaigns.
Gregory, a small business owner and public health professional, centered her campaign on affordability and cost-of-living concerns — issues that have increasingly driven Democratic messaging in recent elections.
Her campaign highlighted her background as a mother of three and an Army spouse, positioning her as a candidate focused on the everyday economic pressures families face.
The Kenya Times reached out to Emily for comment on her victory and its broader significance, but had not received a response by the time of publication.
Maples, a former member of the Lake Clarke Shores Town Council, emphasized his business experience and pledged to cut taxes. His campaign received a late endorsement from President Trump, who urged supporters to back the Republican candidate in the final stretch of the race.
“Jon Maples has my complete and total endorsement! Jon is a very successful businessman and civic leader, who is known and loved, and also endorsed by so many of my Palm Beach County friends, including by Great State Representative “MAGA” Meg Weinberger. Jon will be a terrific legislator! ” Trump wrote on Truth Social ahead of the election.
The Florida result adds to a growing pattern of Democratic gains in special elections since Trump returned to office.
Gregory’s victory marks the 10th Republican-held state legislative seat that Democrats have flipped nationwide during this period. In contrast, Republicans have not flipped any Democratic-held state legislative seats over the same timeframe.
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These gains span multiple states, including Arkansas, where Democrat Alex Holladay recently secured a legislative seat in a district previously held by Republicans.
Broader Democratic trend
The trend has been cited by Democratic strategists as an early indicator of momentum heading into the 2026 midterm elections, particularly in districts where economic concerns are resonating with voters.
Tuesday’s elections in Florida included two other closely watched contests. In a Tampa-area State Senate race, Democrat Brian Nathan held a narrow lead over Republican Josie Tomkow in a district that Trump won by more than seven points in 2024. The race remained too close to call.
The seat was previously held by Republican Jay Collins, who vacated it following his appointment as Florida’s lieutenant governor.
Meanwhile, Republicans managed to hold onto another State House seat in Central Florida, with GOP candidate Hilary Holley defeating Democrat Edwin Pérez by an eight-point margin in a more conservative district.
The outcome in Florida’s 87th District comes amid polling that has placed President Trump’s approval ratings in the high 30s to low 40s range, alongside ongoing national debates over economic conditions and foreign policy, including the war involving Iran.
The result mirrors a similar development in Texas earlier this year, where a Trump-endorsed Republican candidate lost a state-level special election in a district the president had previously carried by double digits.
Mar-a-Lago has served as a central hub of Trump’s political activity, including major policy announcements and strategic decisions during his presidency.
The president remained directly engaged in the election, casting a ballot himself in Palm Beach County according to the County records, as he publicly condemned the voting method as fraudulent.
He has continued to criticize certain voting methods, including mail-in voting, even as public records indicate he has used mail ballots in multiple elections, including the Tuesday polls.
