A severe warning from the first term of President Donald Trump has resurfaced as the U.S.-led war against Iran drags into its third week, amid soaring oil prices, American casualties, and a paralysed Strait of Hormuz.
Former national security adviser John Bolton, who served Trump before their bitter split, on Tuesday, March 18, said he personally briefed the president multiple times on the very scenarios now playing out: Iran retaliating by slamming Gulf Arab neighbours and choking off the critical Strait of Hormuz.
“I know for a fact that he was aware of those potentials,” Bolton told CNN. He recalled raising regime change in Iran repeatedly, only for colleagues to counter with a “whole long list of difficulties,” chief among them, attacks on Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and a blockade of the strait that carries about 20% of the world’s oil.
Bolton sounded genuinely shocked by Trump’s recent claims of total surprise. The president told a White House audience on Monday that Iran “wasn’t supposed to go after all these other countries,” insisting “nobody expected that.
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“We were shocked.” When pressed on prior briefings, Trump insisted: “Nobody, nobody, no, no, no… the greatest experts, nobody thought they were going to hit.”
Bolton maintained, “I find it hard to believe that he forgot about it in the intervening years.”
The fallout from that apparent disconnect is now biting deep. Thirteen U.S. service members have been killed in the conflict, with at least 200 more wounded — most returning to duty but 10 listed as seriously injured, according to U.S. Central Command.
Iran’s near-total shutdown of the Strait has kept global oil prices elevated, with Brent crude around $100 a barrel, driving up gasoline costs and rattling economies far beyond the region.
NATO members defy Trump
Trump has repeatedly demanded that allies, including NATO partners and major Asian importers, deploy warships to reopen the waterway, arguing the U.S. no longer relies heavily on it thanks to domestic energy production.
Most have balked, with Germany’s defense minister bluntly declaring, “This is not our war.”
The administration’s handling has also drawn fresh internal dissent. On the same day Bolton spoke out, Joe Kent — director of the National Counterterrorism Center and a longtime Trump supporter, resigned in protest.
In a letter and social media post, Kent wrote that “Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation” and accused the U.S. of launching the war under “pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.”
Trump, for his part, has offered vague timelines for winding down. Asked about post-war plans, he said the U.S. could leave soon, but isn’t ready yet.:
“If we left right now, it would take 10 years for them to rebuild, but we’re not ready to leave yet, but we’ll be leaving in the near future.”
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Bolton, a longtime hawk on Iran who still favors regime change, didn’t dispute the strategic aim. But he highlighted what he sees as a failure to prepare for predictable blowback — the same risks, he says, that were laid out years ago in the Oval Office.
Experts and Iranian officials had long signaled that Tehran would target regional oil infrastructure and shipping lanes if attacked.
Yet the administration appears to have downplayed those threats when the operation launched, sources familiar with the planning have told outlets such as CNN.
Since the strait is still largely closed, tankers are mostly idle or rerouting at huge cost, and no quick end is in sight, the ignored warnings are fueling criticism that the war’s economic and human toll could have been better anticipated.
On the other hand, Trump continues to project confidence, vowing to hit Iran harder if needed and criticizing reluctant partners.
