Kenya is on alert following warnings from global climate experts about the development of severe and unusual weather conditions expected to affect rainfall patterns, temperatures, and overall climate stability in the coming months, driven by El Niño.
In a statement on June 2, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has indicated a high probability of El Niño conditions developing between June and August 2026, with a strong likelihood of persistence into the later part of the year.
“A new WMO El Nino/La Niña Update indicates an 80% likelihood of an El Nino event during June–August 2026. Probabilities for this to continue until at least November are near or above 90%. Although some uncertainty remains about El Nino peak strength and timing, most forecast models suggest it will be at least moderate – and possibly strong,” the WMO statement read.
El Niño Alert: Is Kenya Heading for Another Weather Crisis?
The organization explained that rising sea surface temperatures and warming subsurface waters in the central-eastern Equatorial Pacific are key indicators of the developing system. These changes are already approaching established thresholds associated with the phenomenon.
According to WMO, the Southern Oscillation Index, which tracks atmospheric pressure patterns linked to global climate shifts, is also consistent with emerging conditions, reinforcing forecasts of a developing event.
Also Read: Kenya Met Explains Key Rainfall Terms Kenyans Must Know
WMO officials have warned that the situation could intensify droughts, heavy rainfall, and heatwaves across different regions, stressing the importance of early preparedness and coordinated response measures to reduce potential impacts on communities and economies.
“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Nino event – which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean. The most recent El Niño, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
Kenya Weather Outlook: Rainfall, Cool Conditions and High Temperatures Expected Across Regions
Also Read: Kenya Met Lists Regions to Receive Rainfall During the First Week of June
In a statement on June 2, the Kenya Meteorological Department forecasted continued rainfall in several parts of the country, including the Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley, the Coastal region, and parts of North-eastern Kenya.
Additionally, it highlighted that cool and cloudy conditions are expected over parts of the Highlands East of the Rift Valley and the South-eastern Lowlands, with occasional light rainfall likely during the period.
At the same time, daytime temperatures are expected to rise above 30°C along the Coast and in northern Kenya, while some high-altitude areas in the East of the Rift Valley and the Central Rift Valley are likely to experience night-time temperatures below 10°C.
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