Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) has gained popularity, rising from 9 percent approval in September 2025 to 16 percent in May 2026.
According to a new TIFA Research survey released on May 14, ODM’s support declined from 32 percent in August 2022 to 18 percent in May 2026, while UDA’s support fell from 38 percent to 17 percent over the same period.
TIFA reported a decline in support for both ODM and UDA since August 2022, citing voter fatigue, changing political loyalties, and increasing uncertainty in the political environment as possible reasons.
The report further linked the trend to changing public sentiment, evolving political alliances, and increased competition from emerging parties such as DCP, whose support has steadily risen from 9 percent in September 2025 to 16 percent in May 2026.
“The findings suggest a significant decline in support for both ODM and UDA compared to their August 2022 levels, highlighting possible voter fatigue, shifting political loyalties, and growing uncertainty within the political landscape. At the same time, the emergence and steady growth of DCP – rising from 9% in September 2025 to 16% in May 2026,” read part of the report.
DCP Gains Momentum as ODM and UDA Support Decline
The report further revealed a split in support within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), with most supporters backing the “Linda Mwananchi” position.
According to the survey, 73 percent of ODM supporters favoured the “Linda Mwananchi” camp led by Edwin Sifuna and others, while 24 percent supported the “Linda Ground” faction associated with Oburu Odinga and allies.
TIFA noted that ODM supporters largely favoured an opposition that prioritizes citizens over government alignment, with the “Linda Mwananchi” camp receiving support for its accountability-focused stance.
Also Read: Rigathi Gachagua Unveils His New Party DCP [Full Speech]
TIFA Poll Shows Decline in Kenyans Supporting Broad-Based Govt
TIFA’s latest survey showed that public opinion on the Broad-Based Government (BBG) changed between May 2025 and May 2026. Support rose at first but later dropped back close to its August 2025 level of 29 percent.
At the same time, opposition popularity rose from 48 percent in November 2025 to 56 percent in May 2026, indicating that more people turned against the arrangement.
Also Read: UDA and ODM Strike Deal to Establish Broad-Based Management Committee
Ethnic Political Leaders
However, agreement was lower in other communities, including the Luhya, Somali, Coastal, and Luo groups, where responses were more divided, suggesting less clear consensus on leadership identity compared to the four leading groups.
