President William Ruto is a man on a mission to strengthen grassroot support for the ruling party, United Democratic Alliance (UDA).
Speaking in Nyeri on Saturday, September 9, President Ruto made remarks reigniting his previous suggestion to have the other parties in Kenya Kwanza close shop and join UDA.
Ruto stated that his agenda is to have a national party to unite the country and accommodate the interest of all Kenyans.
“We are going to make sure that we build a national party that is going to unite the country, communities, and interests from every corner so that we can eliminate the politics of ethnicity in Kenya and change it to the politics of parties around issues that will drive the country into prosperity into the future,” Ruto said.
Options for Wetangula and Mudavadi in Union with Ruto
The push to have all affiliate parties within the Kenya Kwanza camp fold and join UDA leaves Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetangula in dilemma.
The two, who lead Amani National Congress (ANC) and Ford Kenya respectively have a big decision regarding their political career.
Should they risk their political future and join UDA, or should they sacrifice their posts and relationship with President Ruto?
Fold their Parties
Speaking to The Kenya Times, four seasoned political analysts opined that the two politicians, representing the Mulembe Nation have limited options to explore as the clock ticks towards the 2027 polls.
According to Meimuna Mwidau, a political analyst, Mudavadi and Wetangula have three options.
To begin with, Meimuna said the two can fold their respective parties and join the UDA choir.
This was echoed by Dr. Martin Oloo, an Advocate of the High Court, who argues that the sole purpose of ANC and Ford Kenya was to help UDA gain a national image in the 2022 elections.
Further, he explained that the two must fold their parties or risk being crushed by President Ruto.
“Their goose is cooked, their relevance to Kenya Kwanza politics was to help them win with a semblance of national image
Going into 2027, Ruto does not need them with their small parties. They will have to fold them, or risk being overrun by the Ruto political caterpillar!” said Dr. Oloo.
On the other hand, political analyst Javas Bigambo, says the Kenya Kwanza coalition was formed on two bases, to seize power and ideological uniformity.
Additional he explains that the two points are easily the basis of a merger, leaving Mudavadi and Wetangula at a crossroads on what direction to take.
“To demonstrate that they are united in vision and focus with the President, or hold on onto their parties to demonstrate distrust, and inherent fear to fully show singleness of purpose. Their choices are, therefore, very stark,” said Bigambo.
Refuse and Bolt Out
Alternatively, the political analysts suggested that the duo can reject the suggestion and walk out of the Kenya Kwanza Alliance.
Meimuna stated that the two leaders can unite and hold the Western votes against other political parties.
“Their second option is to refuse to fold and resign from government and form Alliance of ANC and Ford Kenya and hold the western block against any other formation,” said Meimuna.
Additionally, Meimuna predicated the two might be destroyed by President Ruto should they fold their parties and join UDA.
“Their strengths emanate from the hold onto the parties as leaders. The president holds the power to sack them without any repercussions should they fold.
That’s my take from their perspective and not from what UDA reasoning,” he said.
On the other hand, Martin Andati concurred with Meimuna stating that Wetangula is likely not to fold Ford Kenya.
“Wetangula will not kill Ford Kenya as he knows the strategic importance of having a party in power negotiation. In fact, he is quietly strengthening it.
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Other Options
Alternatively, Meimuna opined that the duo can renegotiate the agreement on dissolution of parties with President Ruto.
Further, the political analyst advised the two to reason and read from the same script on what happened in the jubilee fold up of parties.
Mudavadi Blunder
Andati pointed out that Mudavadi made a political blunder by handing over ANC party leadership position to Lamu Governor, Issa Timamy.
“Musalia seems to have made a big blunder by handing over ANC to Lamu governor, Issa Timamy, who is doing his second and last term as governor and therefore is not motivated for keeping and growing a political party,” said Andati.
Further, he pointed out that Mudavadi’s decision to pick Omboko Milemba as Secretary General and Beatrice Adagala as deputy party leader was not strategic.
Also, Andati added that these appointments localize the party which could easily lead to its death and its place taken over by UDA and ODM.
Ruto Dumping Mudavadi & Wetangula
On possibility of President Ruto dumping the two leaders, Andati says anything can happen especially if Ruto is re-elected in 2027.
“Ruto can do anything after winning a second term, which is why Wetangula is keeping and strengthening Ford Kenya,” said Andati.
Oloo explained that President Ruto can win Bungoma County without Wetangula in 2027, therefore, Ford Kenya is no longer important
“The question now is simple. Can Ruto win over Bungoma without Weta in 2027? My answer is yes. The win in 2022 is not going to tie Ruto’s hands to Ford Kenya in making strategies for 2027!” said Oloo.
However, on the question of President cutting ties with Mudavadi and Wetangula, Bigambo held a different opinion.
Bigambo argued that President Ruto will not dump the two leaders since they have a symbiotic relationship.
“Ruto cannot dump them, and they can’t leave. They are in a web of benefits. Their options, if any, are limited,” he said.
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The Merger push
UDA Secretary General Cleophas Malala has been pushing for the dissolution of affiliate parties in Kenya Kwanza Alliance.
Moreover, in some instances, Malala has singled out the ANC linked to Mudavadi and Ford Kenya affiliated to Wetangula.
Speaking on September 1, Malala dismissed the ambitions of Mudavadi becoming Kenya’s president.
Malala said the parties from the Western region are ethnic-based and cannot form the government.
“I don’t want to mention names but there is a party from this region where the party leader, Secretary General and the Woman leader are all from the same clan.
Why would such people lie to themselves that they can become president,” said Malala.
Neither Mudavadi nor Wetangula has publicly commented in the ongoing discussion in Keny Kwanza.
