The election campaign for 2027 is gaining momentum. There will be a completely new political shifts and alignments. The Kenya political scene has a cycle and pattern. The unfolding scenarios are new formations and alignments.
The incumbents have started shifting. Those in UDA, ODM, Jubilee, etc., who see no future in these political outfits have started moving. It is going to be an exodus.
There are three clear political formations that are emerging, namely the continuity under a broad-based government, change without change fronted by the United Opposition, and the Third Republic Movement, which is organizing around a new order and a new system.
The monumental economic uncertainty prevailing in the country has created the conditions for the current political rupture in Kenya, especially with Gen Z. It is upending the old political establishment caste.
The Gen Z democratic spring is a rejection of the political establishment. It is ushering in a new system and a new economic order.
Strategy to Keep Cards Close to their Chests
Yet some presidential candidates have adopted a stealth campaign mode, quietly circulating their names on social media platforms for their candidature while opting for silence, calculated restraint, and strategic ambiguity. This is a common playbook in high-stakes political contests with great attraction to both home and abroad policy shifts.
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This is a game of keeping cards close to their chests, a strategy that is both strategic and pragmatic. Discretion can be a more potent weapon. You let the support bases do the talking.
Politics is about timing and proximity to power. Those who speak too early risk alienating both their competitors and potential kingmakers. Staying silent allows aspirants to avoid early backlash and maneuver more fluidly. They want to be sure
There is the art of political silence. Political caution in leadership is very common. Globally, aspirants to top political positions have long employed silence and indirect campaigning as a strategy.
In the United States, potential presidential hopefuls often engage in what is called “testing the waters” without formally announcing a run—quietly raising funds, making strategic appearances, and gauging public sentiment through allies. Barack Obama, in 2006, before declaring his 2008 run, was notably silent while his surrogates built grassroots momentum.
In China’s opaque political system, party cadres seeking elevation to the Politburo or Standing Committee often engage in discreet lobbying within the Communist Party ranks for months or years before public announcements, if any come at all. Similarly, in Russia, potential successors or challengers to President Vladimir Putin have historically maintained a low profile to avoid appearing overly ambitious in a centralized power system.
Shadow Campaigns
The candidates for top leadership positions have historically engaged in shadow campaigns and built alliances behind the scenes before formally emerging. They only emerge after securing formidable endorsement from influential blocs or political figures.
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Astute aspirants are conscious that a misstep can happen. Often, too much noise, controversial statements, or perceived disloyalty can cost them dearly when the time comes for formal campaigning and endorsements.
While social media is awash with different aspirants’ endorsements, direct engagement from the candidates themselves is rare. This is a political survival strategy
Key candidates have adopted the strategy of ‘You let the crowd speak for you. If your campaign gains traction without you saying a word, that’s a signal of strength. It’s also a deniability strategy. If things go wrong, you can say it wasn’t an official campaign.
There is also a game of timing and trust. Ultimately, the silent campaign is not about weakness; it’s about wisdom. The candidates understand the political terrain very well. The loudest voice is not always the most successful one. Sometimes, the path to power is paved quietly, one calculated step at a time. The months ahead will be monumental in shaping the political landscape leading up to the 2027 election, with high stakes at play in the delicate balance of power.
This article was written by Ndung’u Wainaina, a Transitional Justice and Human Security Fellow @NdunguWainaina
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