President William Ruto is expected to consider several factors as he decides on his 2027 running mate. Ruto will face strong opposition led by former Deputy President (DP) Rigathi Gachagua after the duo fell out.
He must also cater to the needs of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga should the MoU between the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) be extended past the next general election.
Ruto must settle his current DP Kithure Kindiki, appeal to the Gen Z voters, and ensure his longtime political friends are ‘happy’.
This leaves the President walking a tight rope as he seeks his reelection.
However, political experts have broken down the factors he will consider while settling for his running mate in the next polls.
Speaking to The Kenya Times, Political Risk Analyst Dismas Mokua said Ruto’s experience with Gachagua has demonstrated that picking a running mate is a complicated science informed by multiple variables.
He explained that the President will have to balance between factors that are clear and certain and those that are uncertain but anticipated.
Picking a running mate is a complicated simultaneous equation because it brings in known knowns and known unknowns.
Ruto to Consider Voter Mobilization
On the other hand, political analyst Dr. Luchetu Likaka said Ruto will go for a politician who can mobilise votes from his existing support base and new areas.
Likaka said the President might go for a politician from the ODM party with strong support at the grassroots level.
Voter mobilization is about more than retaining your base; it’s about bringing in new blocs. An ODM politician, especially one with grassroots machinery and regional clout, would signal a national coalition, likely attracting moderates and “soft opposition” voters disillusioned by Azimio’s inertia.
Also Read: ODM Politicians Tipped as Possible Running Mates for Ruto in 2027
Political analyst Maimuna Mwidau shared a similar opinion.
Mwidau said voter mobilization will be Ruto’s first consideration since politics is a game of numbers.
She explained that Ruto’s running mate will need to be a politician who can attract new votes and build coalitions to support him.
“The running mate will have to be one who can galvanize winning numbers but can also build coalitions to support the Presidential candidate,” Mwidau said.
Regional Balance
Further, Likaka said regional balance remains foundational in Kenya’s presidential politics and will be a key consideration for Ruto in 2027.
Likaka said Ruto has retained control of Rift Valley and Mt. Kenya and will choose a running mate from another region.
“With the Rift Valley firmly in his grip and the Mount Kenya vote still favourable, albeit more contested, Ruto will look to swing regions like Coast, Western, and Nyanza to secure a broader mandate,” he said.
Candidate Who Can Form Coalitions
Similarly, Mwidau said Ruto is likely to form a coalition that will bring together parties from all the regions.
She stated that the running mate should be somebody who will complement Ruto in all these aspects.
In terms of the regional balance, this can be achieved by the coalition that will be formed, bringing on board all regions as required by the political parties’ law. Therefore, the potential running mate should complement Ruto in all these aspects.
Also Read: Why Raila Can’t Remove Edwin Sifuna as ODM SG
Likaka noted that coalition-building will be critical in 2027, as Ruto and Raila are likely to exit Kenyan politics after 2032.
He explained that Ruto’s decision will influence the future of Kenyan politics.
Impact on ODM
The analyst said choosing a member of ODM as his running mate will compel Raila to address the looming leadership gap in the party.
“Ruto is not merely playing the next election; he is shaping the next decade of Kenyan politics. By bringing in a former rival, he would neutralize part of the opposition and force Azimio to confront its identity crisis and looming leadership vacuum. But the consequences would be seismic,” Dr. Likaka said.
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