Nairobi Senator and ODM Party Secretary General (SG) Edwin Sifuna seem to be at loggerheads with party officials, including his party leader, Raila Odinga.

Sifuna has maintained that Raila’s Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with President William Ruto that formed the Broad-Based government is dead.

According to Sifuna, removing Ruto from office is his top priority despite Raila’s clarification that ODM will support the Kenya Kwanza government until 2027.

Speaking to The Kenya Times, Political Analyst Dr. Luchetu Likaka said the tension between Sifuna, and other ODM party officials speak to deeper ideological and generational rifts within the party.

Likaka said Sifuna’s open defiance, including his public declaration that he is unwilling to work with Ruto and would resign if asked by Raila Odinga, underscores a principled stand that resonates with a segment of ODM’s traditional base.

He said his take aligns with the urban youth and progressive reformists who view any rapprochement with Ruto’s administration as betrayal.

According to Likaka, Raila’s delay in removing Sifuna as ODM Secretary General is rooted in political pragmatism.

Likaka explained that Raila is likely exercising caution to avoid a public fallout that could destabilize ODM even though Sifuna’s stand directly contradicts the party’s emerging position.

“Removing Sifuna abruptly could trigger perceptions of intolerance to internal democracy and alienate a section of the party’s loyal base that resonates with Sifuna’s hardline stance,” Likaka said.

Raila Has the Power to Punish Sifuna but He Can’t

Similarly, Political Risk Analyst Dismas Mokua said Raila has the knife and the yam in ODM, and his position is as good as law within the party rank and file.

Mokua said Raila is the only ODM member with the capacity to inflict pain and supply pleasure.

However, despite Raila’s powers in ODM, he has to open doors for contrasting opinions and positions.

He explained that ODM can only grow and serve its most important roles if Raila accommodates opposing views.

“Raila, however, needs to open himself to divergent positions, encourage ideas cross-pollination and adopt collegial leadership not only to grow and develop ODM numbers and influence but also maintain ODM’s raison d’être,” Mokua said.

Political analyst Martin Andati also highlighted two important reasons why Raila cannot fire Sifuna.

Andati said the Luhya voter would be angered if Sifuna is removed from his position.

He also stated that a section of ODM members supporting Sifuna will be provoked if he is removed as SG.

“Raila can’t sack Sifuna now for two reasons – One, he will antagonise those in the party who are supportive of the stance Sifuna has taken. Two, Sifuna comes from the Luhya Nation vote block, which is the single largest voting bloc in ODM, and which would naturally be very angry if Sifuna is ejected,” Andati said.

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Generational Change in ODM

Besides, Dr. Likaka said Sifuna represents a generational and ideological shift within ODM that Raila cannot ignore.

He stated that Sifuna commands significant urban support, especially among youth and progressive voices as the Nairobi Senator.

He stated that openly punishing Sifuna could deter other young leaders from stepping up, thus weakening the party’s long-term vibrancy.

“His articulate and combative style has positioned him as a fresh face in ODM politics. Raila is likely aware that sidelining Sifuna could cost the party its appeal to the younger electorate and compromise ODM’s future leadership renewal,” Dr. Likaka said.

Likaka said Raila may prefer to manage the conflict informally to preserve cohesion while postponing a definitive break.

Is Raila Using Sifuna?

The analyst also weighed in on the thoughts that Raila might be using Sifuna to test the waters ahead of the 2027 election.

Dr. Likaka said Raila may be using Sifuna’s dissent to project ODM as a pluralistic and tolerant party.

He emphasized that such a controlled ideological diversity could be useful as Raila navigates both local alliances and his continental ambitions, such as the AU Commission Chair bid.

“Sifuna’s vocal opposition to Ruto allows the party to retain an oppositional posture even as some factions engage in rapprochement with the government,” Dr. Likaka explained.

Mokua is also of the opinion that Sifuna’s defiance could be part of Raila’s political game.

He pointed out that Raila might have deliberately allowed Sifuna and other officials to oppose the party as a plan to manage the public opinion.

“It is, however, not unusual for Raila to allow party rank and file to take divergent and rebel positions as a strategy for political insurance and opinion management,” Mokua said.

What Next for Sifuna?

The analysts agreed that Sifuna’s political career remains bright, with or without his position as ODM Secretary General.

Dr. Likaka said Sifuna has multiple political pathways if he is removed as Secretary General or if ODM formally aligns with Ruto post-2027.

He explained that Sifuna may choose to remain in ODM as a reformist voice, leveraging his dissent to build political capital.

Alternatively, Likaka said Sifuna could also exit ODM and form or join a third-force political movement aimed at reclaiming the opposition space.

Also Read: Today in History: When Ababu Namwamba Resigned as ODM Secretary General

“With his Nairobi base and legal background, Sifuna could also pivot to county leadership or civic advocacy, positioning himself as a principled leader preparing for a national role in the future,” Dr. Likaka said.

“For Sifuna, the unfolding rift may become a defining moment that either elevates his national stature or forces him to chart an independent political course.”

Working with the Opposition

Andati said Sifuna will eventually join the United Opposition with like-minded politicians like Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya.

Further, Sifuna has built a national image with a huge following in Nairobi and can even go for a bigger position in 2027.

“If he’s removed as SG then he will bid his time has he prepares to join the likes of Natembeya and ultimately join the united opposition in readiness for preparation to defend his seat or negotiate for something bigger, as he has built some serious following both in Nairobi and nationally due to his courage, elegance and being articulate,” Andati said.

Politicians Who Leave ODM Succeed

Mokua also said Sifuna’s political career could be elevated if he is ejected as ODM Secretary General, citing the history of leaders who once worked with Raila but later left him.

“⁠Several visionary and agile ODM leaders who have parted ways with Raila have hit the high notes,” he said.

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