El Nino and Other Climate Patterns to Watch in 2025

A report from the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), titled State of the Climate Report Kenya 2024, has outlined the projected climate and rain patterns for 2025.

The report states that there are equal chances (50%) of El Niño and La Niña (collectively known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation or ENSO) occurring until April 2025.

From March-May 2025 onward through June-August, ENSO-neutral conditions are favoured

Both El Niño and La Niña are characterized by changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

El Nino and Other Climate Patterns to Watch in 2025

During El Niño, SSTs in the central and eastern Pacific become warmer than average, while during La Niña, these SSTs become cooler than average.

“La Niña is generally associated with suppressed rainfall over Kenya and East Africa, while El Niño tends to enhance rainfall, leading to above-average precipitation,” the report noted.

From March-May 2025 onward through June-August, ENSO-neutral conditions are favoured.

“For the following two seasons, July-September and August-October 2025, there is no strong preference between La Niña and ENSO-neutral, though ENSO-neutral is slightly favoured in the earlier period and La Niña in the later one,” the report read further.

By September-November (54%) and October-December (55%) 2025, La Niña conditions are slightly more likely than ENSO-neutral conditions.

“However, the ENSO spring predictability barrier refers to the reduced reliability of ENSO forecasts during March–May, as ENSO is in a transitional phase,” the report read.

Also Read: Kenya Met Announces Dates When Long Rains Will Start Nationwide

March-April-May (Mam) 2025 “Long-Rains” Season and Temperature Outlook

According to the report, March to May (MAM) is Kenya’s major rainfall season, significantly influencing much of equatorial Eastern Africa.

High rainfall amounts, often exceeding 300mm, typically occur in the Lake Victoria Basin, Highlands West of the Rift Valley, and both the Central and South Rift Valley.

Significant rainfall is also expected in the Highlands East of the Rift Valley (including Nairobi County) and the Coastal Strip.

The consolidated MAM 2025 forecast indicates near to above-average rainfall over the Lake Victoria Basin, South Rift Valley, Highlands West of the Rift Valley, southern Southeastern Lowlands, and northern Northwestern Kenya.

Near to below-average rainfall is expected over the Central Rift Valley, Highlands East of the Rift Valley (including Nairobi County), most of Northwest Kenya, the Coastal region, Southeastern Lowlands, and some areas in the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, while below-average rainfall is expected over the northeastern regions and the north coast.

Warmer-than-average temperatures are expected across the entire country, with increased probabilities of higher temperatures in Central Kenya, the Southeastern Lowlands, the South Coast, and parts of the Northeast.

June-July-August (JJA) 2025 Season

During the JJA season, rainfall will mainly be concentrated in the Lake Basin, Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Rift Valley, some areas in the Highlands East of the Rift Valley, and the Coastal Strip.

The rest of the country will generally remain dry during this period. Most areas in the Central Highlands and Nairobi typically experience cool or cold, cloudy conditions with occasional light rains or drizzles.

September Climatology

September is generally dry across most parts of the country. However, occasional rainfall may occur over Western Kenya, the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, and the Central Highlands.

While most regions experience minimal precipitation, localized showers can occur, especially in the western highlands.

Also Read: Kenya Met Lists Regions Set for Heavy Rains Starting Sunday

October-November-December (OND) Season

The October-November-December (OND) “Short Rains” season is a crucial rainfall period in Kenya, particularly for the Central and Eastern regions.

October typically marks the onset of the short rains across many parts of the country, while November is generally the peak month of the season.

December signals the cessation of the short rains, except in southern Kenya near the Tanzanian border, where rains normally persist for longer.

The predictability of the OND season is influenced by two primary climate drivers: the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Currently, both ENSO and IOD are in a neutral phase.

“However, forecasting sea surface temperatures (SSTs) beyond the March-May period presents challenges due to the spring predictability barrier,” read part of the report.

“As a result, it remains crucial to monitor updates issued by the meteorological department for more accurate seasonal outlooks and potential changes in climatic conditions.”

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Temperature and rainfall outlook for March-May 2025. Photo. KMD Climate — Temperature and rainfall outlook for March-May 2025. Photo. KMD

Tags: El Nino Kenya Met La Niña