The Kenya Meteorological Department has released the March–April–May 2026 Long Rains Seasonal Climate Outlook following the 12th National Climate Outlook Forum held in Nairobi. The Kenya Met outlook indicates that several parts of the country are likely to experience near-average to below-average rainfall, with variability in the onset, distribution, and intensity of rainfall during the season.
“The outlook indicates that several parts of the country are likely to experience near-average to below-average rainfall, with variability in onset, distribution, and intensity,” Kenya Met statement partly confirmed.
The Kenya Department has advised the public and sectoral stakeholders to plan accordingly.
The advisory covers agriculture and food security, water resources, health, energy, transport and infrastructure, disaster risk management, and urban and community planning.
Kenya Met Lists Near-Average to Below-Average Rainfall Areas
Near-average to below-average rainfall is forecast over the following areas;
- Lake Victoria Basin
- Highlands West of the Rift Valley
- Highlands East of the Rift Valley (including Nairobi)
- Rift Valley
- North-western Kenya
The outlook indicates that some areas within these regions may experience isolated heavy rainfall events. These isolated events may raise the risk of localised flooding and landslides.
“Some areas may experience isolated heavy rainfall events, raising the risk of localised flooding and landslides,” Kenya Met noted.
Near-Average to Below-Average Rainfall Areas
Near-average to below-average rainfall is forecast across the southeastern lowlands, northeastern Kenya, and parts of the northwest. These regions largely fall within arid and semi-arid lands.
According to the outlook, rainfall in these areas may be poorly distributed, with intermittent dry spells during the season. The department indicates that such rainfall patterns may affect agriculture, pasture, and water availability.
The outlook further notes that rainfall variability is expected to be a key feature in these regions, with differences in onset timing, intensity, and spatial coverage. As with other regions, the overall distribution is projected to range from poor to fair.
Also Read: Some Regions to Receive Rain Over the Weekend Amid Sunny Conditions Nationwide
Below-Average Rainfall Areas
Below-average rainfall is expected over the coastal region, including Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, and the coastal parts of the Tana River Delta.
Despite generally lower rainfall totals, the outlook indicates that isolated heavy rainfall events may still occur, particularly later in the season. The Kenya Meteorological Department notes that the Coast is expected to experience peak rainfall in May, later than in most other regions, which experience peak rainfall in April.
Rainfall onset along the Coast is also projected to be normal to late, with variability in distribution and intensity during the season.
Season Characteristics and Temperature Outlook
The seasonal characteristics outlined in the outlook indicate normal to late onset in many areas, poor to fair distribution across several regions, and peak rainfall in April for most regions and May for the Coast.
Also Read: Kenya Met Issues New Heatwave Advisory for Nairobi, Mombasa, and Other Major Towns
Edward M. Muriuki, Acting Director of Meteorological Services, stated that the season is projected to have a generally poor to fair temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall across several areas, with intermittent dry spells. However, isolated heavy rainfall events may occur.
“The season is projected to have a generally poor to fair temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall across several areas, with intermittent dry spells, though isolated heavy rainfall events may occur,” he said.
The temperature outlook indicates warmer-than-average temperatures across the country.
According to the department, higher temperatures may increase heat-related risks, especially in arid and semi-arid areas, coastal regions, and urban centres.
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