The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has released a weather outlook, detailing expected conditions for the period from December 2025 to February 2026.
According to the forecast signed by Acting Director of Meteorological Services Edward Muriuki, most parts of the country are expected to record reduced rainfall in December, followed by generally dry and warm conditions in January and February.
Rainfall Forecast for December 2025
The weatherman indicated that most regions will experience near-average to below-average rainfall in December, with some areas in the northeast expected to record highly depressed rainfall.
Rainfall will be uneven, with prolonged dry spells likely across most regions. However, isolated heavy rain may still occur. The southeastern lowlands may experience significant rainfall at the beginning of the month, according to the forecast.
The OND rains are projected to cease between the first and fourth weeks of December. Temperatures are expected to remain warmer than average across the country.
Kenya Met releases general outlook for December – February 2026
KMD reports that most areas will be sunny and dry in January and February.
Limited rainfall may still be recorded in the Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley (including Nairobi), the South Rift Valley, the southeastern lowlands, and parts of the Coast. The northern half of the country is expected to receive some rainfall early in December, followed by extended dry conditions.
Also Read: Weatherman Lists Regions Set to Receive Rainfall in the First Week of December
The outlook is based on prevailing and projected sea surface temperature anomalies across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.
According to the Kenya Meteorological Department, La Niña conditions are ongoing and expected to persist into early 2026, with a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions likely between January and March. Kenya Met said that the adverse Indian Ocean Dipole event has been weakening and is expected to return to neutral in December.
Regional rainfall breakdown for December 2025
According to the Kenya Met, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, and the Central and South Rift Valley are expected to receive intermittent rainfall with breaks, with totals projected to be near or below average for December.
These areas cover counties such as Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Kisii, Nyamira, West Pokot, Trans Nzoia, Baringo, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Nandi, Laikipia, Nakuru, Narok, Kericho, Bomet, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, and Busia.
In the northwestern region, which includes Turkana and Samburu counties, conditions are forecast to remain predominantly sunny and dry.
Occasional rainfall may occur in isolated areas, but the overall amounts are expected to be near or below the long-term average.
In the Highlands East of the Rift Valley and Central Kenya, the weatherman predicts intermittent rainfall during the month, with total rain likely to be near to below average. This region covers the counties of Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, Meru, Embu, and Tharaka Nithi, as well as Nairobi.
Also Read: Govt Issues Advisories After Kenya Met’s Warning on Impending La Niña and El Niño
On the other hand, the northeastern region, comprising Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, and Isiolo, is expected to experience mostly sunny, dry conditions. Rainfall amounts in this zone are forecast to be highly depressed.
In the southeastern lowlands, which cover Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Machakos, Taita Taveta, and Tana River counties, intermittent rainfall is expected, with amounts projected to be near or below average.
Along the Coastal Strip — including Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu, Kwale, and the coastal areas of Tana River County — intermittent rainfall is expected, with below-average totals anticipated over the South Coast and parts of the North Coast, including Kilifi and Lamu.
Three-Month Outlook
KMD indicates that the Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, Central Kenya, and the South Rift Valley are likely to receive intermittent rainfall in December before turning generally dry in January and February.
Some counties around the southern Lake Victoria Basin, including Kisii, Nyamira, Narok, and Bomet, may experience isolated rainfall days in early 2026.
The Highlands East of the Rift Valley, including Nairobi, and the southeastern lowlands are also expected to receive intermittent rainfall in December and remain mostly dry thereafter.
Northwestern and northeastern Kenya are forecast to remain predominantly dry throughout the period, with minimal rainfall. The Coast is expected to receive intermittent rainfall in December, followed by dry conditions in the following two months.
Temperatures are forecast to remain warmer than average across the entire country during the December–February period.
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