Kenya has an 81 percent chance of experiencing a very strong El Niño later this year, with the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) warning that the country should prepare for above-normal rainfall across most parts of the country during the October-November-December (OND) short rains season.
According to the department’s latest climate outlook, released on Friday, July 24, there is also a 97 percent probability that the El Niño event will persist into early 2027.
Despite the high likelihood of a very strong event, Kenya Met cautioned that El Niño alone does not determine how much rain Kenya receives or whether floods will occur.
The department explained that the impacts of El Niño vary from one event to another depending on its intensity and, more importantly, the response of the Indian Ocean, which plays a critical role in determining rainfall over East Africa.
Understanding El Niño
Kenya Met explained that El Niño is one of the three phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), alongside the Neutral phase and La Niña.
ENSO is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that changes global atmospheric circulation, influencing temperatures and rainfall patterns across different parts of the world.
In Kenya, both El Niño and La Niña are associated with extreme weather events, particularly during the October-November-December rainy season.
The department noted that both climate events normally last about a year, although they can be shorter or persist for much longer.
El Niño is declared when the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) records a temperature anomaly of at least +0.5 degrees Celsius for five consecutive overlapping three-month periods.
Under normal conditions, trade winds blow westward along the equator, pushing warm surface waters from the west coast of South America towards Asia.
During an El Niño event, however, these trade winds weaken, allowing warm water to move back towards the eastern Pacific Ocean near South America.
This results in warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, disrupting atmospheric circulation and altering rainfall patterns around the world.
The department emphasized that the term “Super El Niño” is not an official scientific classification.
Instead, El Niño events are classified according to sea surface temperature anomalies recorded in the Pacific Ocean.
The department classifies the events as:
- Weak: +0.5°C to +0.9°C
- Moderate: +1.0°C to +1.4°C
- Strong: +1.5°C to +1.9°C
- Very Strong: +2.0°C and above
Historical records show that only five very strong El Niño events have occurred since 1950, including the major episodes experienced in 1972, 1982, 1997, 2015 and the current 2026 event if projections are realized.
KMD also noted that the world has experienced seven El Niño events since 1997, with each producing different impacts depending on ocean conditions.
Also Read: El Niño Flood Alert: Full List of High-Risk Areas Across Kenya
Above-Normal Rains Expected From October
Although El Niño is generally associated with enhanced rainfall across Kenya during the OND season, KMD stressed that a very strong El Niño does not automatically translate into torrential rainfall.
The department said the amount, distribution and intensity of rainfall over Kenya depend largely on the behaviour of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
The IOD measures the difference in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern Indian Ocean.
A positive IOD generally increases rainfall over East Africa, while a neutral or negative phase can reduce the effects of El Niño.
As of July 20, 2026, the IOD remained neutral, with an index of +0.25 degrees Celsius.
However, KMD said there is more than a 60 per cent chance that the Indian Ocean Dipole will become positive from August.
The department expects below-average rainfall over the western half of Kenya during August and September before wetter conditions develop later in the year.
Forecasts indicate that above-average rainfall is likely over most parts of the country during October and November, with the strongest wet signal expected during those two months.
What Kenyans Should Expect
According to Kenya Met, if the forecast materializes, Kenya could experience prolonged periods of rainfall accompanied by heavy downpours, thunderstorms and strong winds.
The department, however, said disasters occur when heavy rainfall coincides with exposure, vulnerability and inadequate preparedness.
It warned against equating El Niño with floods, saying flooding depends on factors such as drainage systems, settlement patterns, land degradation, infrastructure and disaster preparedness.
The department noted that many parts of Kenya remain vulnerable after recent drought conditions, with degraded catchment areas, weakened infrastructure and the growing effects of climate change increasing the country’s exposure to extreme weather.
Floods, Landslides and Infrastructure Damage
KMD warned that heavy rainfall could trigger flash floods, river flooding and urban flooding in vulnerable areas.
Floodwaters could destroy homes, schools, markets, bridges and other critical infrastructure while disrupting transport and humanitarian operations.
Road transport is expected to face significant challenges should rivers overflow.
Among the transport corridors likely to experience disruptions are the Nairobi-Garissa-Wajir highway, the Garissa-Tana River-Lamu route, the Isiolo-Marsabit road, and sections of the Rift Valley highway network, where flooding has previously cut off transport.
The department also warned of an increased risk of landslides and mudslides in highland counties.
Areas considered particularly vulnerable include West Pokot, Elgeyo Marakwet, Nakuru and Murang’a, where prolonged rainfall could saturate soils and trigger slope failures capable of destroying homes, roads and other infrastructure.
Also Read: Weatherman Lists 19 Counties to Receive Rain as Nairobi Braces for Cold Week
Health Risks
KMD also warned that prolonged rainfall could increase the risk of disease outbreaks.
Flooding is expected to raise the likelihood of cholera, typhoid and malaria, while also disrupting healthcare services and placing pressure on water, sanitation and hygiene systems in affected communities.
Standing water created by heavy rains could provide breeding grounds for mosquitoes, increasing malaria transmission, while contamination of water sources could lead to outbreaks of waterborne diseases.
Counties Asked to Strengthen Preparedness
KMD has urged national and county governments, disaster management agencies, humanitarian organizations and communities to begin preparedness measures well before the onset of the October-November-December rains.
The department recommended clearing blocked drainage systems, strengthening flood early warning systems, identifying evacuation centres, protecting critical infrastructure, pre-positioning emergency supplies and sensitizing communities living in flood-prone areas.
It also called for continuous monitoring of weather forecasts as climate conditions evolve over the coming months.
While the outlook points to a high probability of a very strong El Niño, KMD maintained that the extent of rainfall and its impacts will ultimately depend on the interaction between El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole, underscoring the need for preparedness rather than panic.
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