U.S. intelligence has raised concerns that Cuba has expanded its military drone program and is discussing potential plans to target U.S. assets, including the Guantanamo Bay naval base and locations in Florida, according to a report by Axios citing classified intelligence and senior U.S. officials.

The report says the intelligence suggests Cuba has acquired more than 300 military drones since 2023, with support and equipment linked to Russia and Iran.

Officials described the development as part of a broader shift in Cuba’s military capabilities toward unmanned systems, which have become central in modern warfare.

The Trump administration, which is currently in office, is treating the matter as a growing security concern, though officials stress there is no indication of an imminent attack.

Intelligence reports point to expanding drone program

According to Axios, U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that Cuban military officials have been discussing how drone capabilities could be used in a potential conflict scenario involving the United States.

The discussions reportedly include possible targeting of U.S. naval forces, the Guantanamo Bay detention facility, and areas in South Florida, located roughly 90 miles from Cuba.

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The intelligence also indicates that Cuba has received drone systems with varying levels of capability from Russia and Iran since 2023. U.S. officials cited by Axios said additional military equipment has been sought in recent months, alongside efforts by Cuban intelligence to study how Iran has used drones in regional conflicts.

The report further notes that signals intelligence facilities operated by Russia and China in Cuba remain active, adding to long-standing U.S. concerns about foreign military presence on the island.

U.S. response

CIA Director John Ratcliffe recently traveled to Cuba and delivered a warning to Cuban officials against any hostile actions, according to a CIA official.

He also urged broader political change, saying continued confrontation would deepen sanctions and isolation.

The Department of Justice is also preparing to unseal an indictment against Raúl Castro, Cuba’s de facto leader, tied to a 1996 incident involving the downing of two civilian aircraft operated by a Miami-based group. The move is expected to add further strain to already tense relations.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, speaking at a congressional hearing, acknowledged concerns about foreign adversaries operating near U.S. territory. He pointed to Cuba’s geographic proximity and the presence of foreign intelligence facilities as ongoing security risks.

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U.S. officials also referenced Cuba’s involvement in global conflicts, including estimates that thousands of Cuban soldiers have supported Russian forces in Ukraine, where they may have gained exposure to drone warfare tactics.

Why this matters

The developments reflect growing concern within Washington over how quickly drone warfare is reshaping global security threats. Even though U.S. officials say Cuba does not currently pose an imminent military threat, the combination of proximity, foreign military cooperation, and expanding unmanned capabilities has shifted how the Trump administration views the island’s strategic role.

Cuba’s location, just 90 miles from Florida, places U.S. territory within range of emerging military technologies that are increasingly accessible to smaller states and allied networks. This changes the traditional balance of deterrence that has shaped U.S.-Cuba relations since the Cold War.