The decision by the administration of Donald Trump to release millions of barrels of oil from emergency reserves was meant to calm global energy markets as the war with Iran continues.
But early market reactions suggest the move may not have the intended impact, raising questions about whether the strategy was miscalculated.
The United States announced plans to release 172 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve over the next four months. The action is part of a broader coordinated effort by the International Energy Agency, whose member countries collectively agreed to release an additional 400 million barrels of oil into the market.
Together, the coordinated move would put about 572 million barrels of crude oil into global supply, roughly 30 percent of the emergency reserves held by the U.S. and other IEA countries.
The goal is clear: increase supply quickly enough to slow the rise in oil prices triggered by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
However, the numbers behind the decision highlight a challenge.
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Since the outbreak of fighting during the Iran War, shipping disruptions have intensified around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes. About 20 million barrels of crude oil normally pass through the strait every day, making it a vital chokepoint for global energy markets.
With Iran effectively blocking or disrupting traffic in the area, that daily supply has been sharply reduced.
When compared to those lost flows, the reserve release looks far smaller than it initially appears.
At the current disruption level of 20 million barrels per day, the entire 572-million-barrel release would cover only about 29 days of lost supply from the Strait of Hormuz. That calculation assumes the disruption remains constant and that the reserves are used solely to offset the missing oil.
But the war has already been underway for nearly two weeks.
By day 13 of the conflict, an estimate put the halt to roughly 260 million barrels of oil supply that would normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz at roughly 260 million barrels. Once that earlier disruption is accounted for, the new reserves would effectively cover only about 16 additional days of missing supply.
That gap between supply loss and emergency reserves is one reason oil markets have remained uneasy.
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Despite the announcement, global benchmark crude prices continued to rise, with Brent crude approaching $100 per barrel shortly after the coordinated release was revealed.
Higher crude prices are already filtering down to consumers. In the United States, gasoline prices have climbed steadily in recent days, reaching an average of $3.58 per gallon, according to energy market data.
Trump defended the decision earlier this week during a visit to Ohio, saying that releasing oil from reserves should ease pressure on fuel prices.
“We’ll reduce it a little bit, and that brings the prices down,” he said, adding that the reserve could later be replenished.
But the effectiveness of the move may depend less on the amount released and more on how long the conflict lasts.
