Many Kenyans seeking jobs may continue to face a difficult employment market as businesses balance growth plans against rising costs and economic uncertainty, according to a new report by the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK).
In its September 2026 survey, CBK found that banks expected to hire more people in 2026 than in 2025. However, other private-sector businesses were more cautious about hiring, suggesting that job opportunities may increase at different rates across industries.
The survey examined expectations among commercial banks, microfinance banks and private-sector firms on employment, inflation, lending, economic activity and growth prospects.
“Bank respondents expect higher employment in 2026 compared to 2025, reflecting expected business expansion and increased recruitment of permanent and contract staff,” the CBK report states.
Findings suggest hiring prospects vary by sector, with banks anticipating stronger recruitment while other businesses remain mindful of the costs and risks of expansion.
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Why Businesses May Be Cautious About Hiring
According to the CBK survey, businesses remain concerned about inflation, global economic shocks, oil price volatility and climate-related risks, including possible El Niño conditions.
These factors can affect the cost of running a business, from transporting goods and purchasing supplies to paying for energy and other operating expenses.
When businesses face uncertainty over future costs and demand, they may delay expansion or limit recruitment until conditions become more predictable.
However, the survey does not establish that all employers are freezing recruitment. Instead, it records businesses’ expectations, which differ between banks and other private-sector firms.
Businesses Remain Optimistic About Economic Growth
Despite employment concerns, respondents expressed confidence in Kenya’s economic prospects over the coming year.
The survey identifies macroeconomic stability, stronger private-sector credit, digital lending and growth among micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) as factors expected to support economic activity.
Respondents also identified trade, tourism, and infrastructure as areas expected to contribute to growth.
Respondents expected economic activity to remain moderate in October and November before gaining momentum in December. The anticipated improvement was linked to increased lending, infrastructure spending and higher demand during the festive season.
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However, the report notes that external economic shocks, inflationary pressures and weather-related disruptions could affect the pace of growth.
More Lending Expected to Support Businesses
The survey also points to expected growth in lending to the private sector.
Banks projected private-sector credit growth of 11.2 per cent by December 2026, compared with the 9.9 per cent projected in the July survey.
The report links the expected increase to financing needs in sectors including MSMEs, agriculture, food value chains, trade, construction, energy and manufacturing.
The report also says retail and digital lending are expected to make it easier for people and businesses to access loans. It also projects that lending rates will remain largely unchanged over the next 12 months, assuming the Central Bank Rate remains stable.
Increased access to financing could help businesses invest in operations and expand over time. Such expansion may create opportunities for additional workers.
CBK conducted the survey during the first three weeks of September 2026. It received responses from 38 commercial banks, 14 microfinance banks and 207 non-bank private-sector firms.
The firms represented sectors accounting for about 78 per cent of Kenya’s gross domestic product (GDP).
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