The Limuru 3 conference planned for Friday, May 17 has attracted mixed reactions from different factions in the Mount Kenya region, with political bigwigs from Central flexing their muscles.
The organizers led by Narc Kenya party leader Martha Karua and Jubilee Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni, announced that the conference would be held to provide solutions to issues affecting the region.
Besides, they invited all leaders from the region including Deputy President (DP) Rigathi Gachagua and former president Uhuru Kenyatta to the much-anticipated meeting.
DP Gachagua, National Assembly Majority Leader Kimani Ichung’wah and Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro have openly criticized the meeting terming it as divisive and ethnic based.
The Kenya Times spoke to political experts who explained how the Limuru 3 meeting will impact Mt Kenya politics and Gachagua’s political future, slightly a year into office as the Second in Command.
Limuru 3 is Irrelevant
Speaking to The Kenya Times, political analyst Martin Andati said the planned conference will have no impact on Mt Kenya and national politics.
Andati reasoned that Karua and Kioni are seeking political relevance adding that they don’t have a say in Mt Kenya’s politics.
“It has zero impact to the politics of Mt Kenya, Karua and Kioni have zero impact. They are basically seeking relevance, but the reality is that that they don’t have any serious impact on the mountain,” he said.
“You saw it even during the LSK elections, they pretended that they could anoint a Mt Kenya candidate when the elections were held, they lost almost all the political elections including Nyeri to Faith Odhiambo.”
According to Andati, the meeting could have had a huge impact if Uhuru Kenyatta was part of the organizers, emphasizing that the two Azimio principals and the Kikuyu Council of Elders don’t have an impact on region’s politics.
“Mt Kenya right now is seriously tilted towards Uhuru. He has about 70% to 80% of the support, the other portion could be leaning towards Gachagua and Ruto,” he said.
“If Uhuru had a big say in Limuru 3 you could see the kind of panic that could be taking place in UDA. But you can see Uhuru is not bothered.”
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Impact on Local & National Politics
On the contrary, governance expert and political analyst Javas Arafat Bigambo said the meeting is important since it focuses on critical issues of political and economic interest of the Mt Kenya region.
Bigambo explained that the meeting comes at a time when there are talks around Ruto’s succession and complaints regarding his administration.
Political Analyst Maimuna Mwidau also said Limuru 3 is a defining moment since it brings together the whole region irrespective of political alliance.
Mwaidau noted the conference’s biggest agenda is to form a block based on the specific issues that promote them.
“In Central region, one man one vote one shilling means if we vote together, we will be able to get enough representation to push our agenda in terms of resource allocation. The one vote is the coming together of the Mountain people,” she said.
Gachagua in Dilemma
For these reasons, Bigambo argues that the DP is at crossroads on whether to be part of the Limuru 3 conference or stay out of it.
He stated that Gachagua risks losing his popularity in Mt Kenya if the conference succeeds without his involvement.
On the other hand, he will be at war with President William Ruto if he chooses to attend since the meeting is organized by opposition leaders from the region.
“Limuru 3 creates a dilemma for the DP, if the meeting gains momentum and he is not part of it and does not finance it, this will then mean that Central Kenya is moving on without him,” Bigambo said.
“If he finances or becomes part of it whether in person or by way of pulling strings then it will be seen and known that he is drifting away from UDA politics. He will be angling himself to wear political gloves that may put him against Ruto.”
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Limuru 3 Scheme for 2032
Bigambo also said Limuru 3 is about gathering political momentum to steer political conversation, access power and control resources in readiness for the 2027 election.
“The wider scheme is an early plan for succession politics post 2027. It seems that it is deliberate for Mt Kenya not to miss a candidate the way they missed in 2022. That could be a larger plan,’ he said.
Agreeing with his sentiments Mwidau said the region is already preparing Gachagua or Nyoro to take over in 2032.
Mwidau said the public rivalry between Gachagua and Nyoro is not deep and will depend on the person the region will support in 2027 and 2032.
She explained that the two leaders might already be having a plan for the DP position in 2032 and the presidential candidate after Ruto’s term expires.
“This could also be planning post Ruto era, if Gachagua goes in the second round, I am assuming they could be negotiating so that Nyoro comes in in 2032. There is a way they are playing with this, if Gachagua does not go in the second round then he can be in the third-round post Ruto. This is just planning in advance,” she said.
Voting as a Block
Mwidau said the region cannot afford to divide their votes in the next two elections since they risk staying out of government for another decade.
She emphasized that the conference is about the community, adding that other communities should emulate the trend if they want to be heard at the national level.
“They cannot afford to be out of government for a whole decade. They used to be in power and they know it is garnered through collective voting,” she said.
“It is a very good strategy if other regions could learn from them and organize themselves, we would have a very good democracy of negotiating with each other. All politics is local and if you don’t do that then nobody will do it for you,” Mwidau added.
Impact on Ruto’s Re-election
Bigambo further said the conference cannot hurt Ruto’s re-election in 2027 since the region is not united behind one politician.
He explained that Ruto is taking advantage of the divisions in Mt Kenya to rule freely since nobody stands a chance against him in the next election.
“It may not impact Ruto that much because we don’t have a substantive leader from Mt Kenya or even nationally who can challenge him not even Kalonzo Musyoka. That is why the current administration makes some proposals, some of which are unpopular, but they implement them,” he said.
He maintained that Gachagua and Public Service Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria should not attend the meeting since they are in government and can provide solutions to problems raised by Limuru 3 organizers.
