Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna has emerged as the preferred presidential candidate among Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) supporters, according to the latest Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) survey.
The survey shows that 44 percent of ODM supporters would prefer Sifuna to contest and win the presidency, placing him ahead of President William Ruto, who garnered 20 percent support among the party’s supporters.
Within the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA), the survey found overwhelming backing for President Ruto, with 84 percent of the party’s supporters naming him as their preferred presidential candidate. Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka came a distant second with 3 percent.
Among supporters of the Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP), former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua emerged as the leading presidential choice, attracting 44 percent support.
TIFA noted that the findings demonstrate strong loyalty among supporters of the major political parties to their preferred candidates.
“ODM supporters: most of them back Sifuna, while 20% would support Ruto and 13% remain undecided. UDA supporters: Ruto has strong support from the UDA base,” stated the survey.
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TIFA Survey Highlights
- ODM supporters: Edwin Sifuna – 44%, President William Ruto – 20%
- UDA supporters: President William Ruto – 84%, Kalonzo Musyoka – 3%
- DCP supporters: Rigathi Gachagua – 44%
Majority Oppose Broad-Based Government
The survey also found that most Kenyans remain opposed to the Broad-Based Government (BBG) arrangement between President William Ruto and the late former Prime Minister Raila Odinga.
According to the poll, 52 percent of respondents said they oppose the arrangement, compared to 30 percent who support it. A further 15 percent said they had no opinion, while 4 percent said they were unaware of the arrangement.
TIFA said support for the BBG appears to have stabilized despite continued political debate over the arrangement.
“The current level of support is identical to what it was in May (30%), suggesting that the continuing split within ODM over the matter of supporting the President’s re-election bid… has appeared to have created a fairly stable ‘ceiling’ as to how much support the BBG can attract.”
Sifuna Leads ODM to Top Political Party Rankings
The poll further ranked the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) as Kenya’s most popular political party, attracting 20 percent support.
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The ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) came second with 17 percent, while the Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) ranked third with 12 percent. Nearly 28 percent of respondents said they did not support any political party.
According to TIFA, the findings indicate that Kenya’s political environment is becoming increasingly competitive.
“Support for ODM and UDA has declined significantly since the 2022 General Election, while DCP is emerging as a challenger and nearly one-third of voters remain undecided,” noted the survey.
Within ODM itself, the survey found that the Linda Mwananchi faction associated with Sifuna enjoys overwhelming backing from party supporters.
According to the poll, 74 percent of ODM supporters back the Linda Mwananchi faction compared to 20 percent who support the Linda Ground (Tuko Tayari) faction.
“ODM supporters are consolidating behind the ‘Linda Mwananchi’ position, with support increasing while the alternative ‘Linda Ground’ position continues to lose ground,” TIFA observed.
Ruto Still Leads National Presidential Race
Nationally, however, President Ruto remains the preferred candidate to win the 2027 presidential election.
The survey places Ruto at 24 percent, followed by Edwin Sifuna (15 percent), Fred Matiang’i (14 percent), Kalonzo Musyoka (13 percent) and Rigathi Gachagua (7 percent). About 20 percent of respondents remain undecided.
Although Ruto maintains the lead, TIFA says Sifuna has recorded the fastest rise among opposition figures.
“Sifuna has recorded the fastest rise among opposition figures, increasing from virtually no support in 2025 to 15% in June 2026, positioning him among the leading opposition contenders.”
The report further notes that Sifuna’s national support rose from 10 percent in May to 15 percent in June, while Kalonzo’s support dropped from 19 percent to 13 percent over the same period.
Even so, TIFA argues that the opposition’s challenge remains the absence of a single dominant challenger to President Ruto.
“While President Ruto is currently the most popular potential presidential candidate… his standing at only one-quarter of Kenyans (24%) suggests that the Opposition has considerable opportunity in next year’s election.”
The survey was conducted between June 13 and June 22, 2026, through face-to-face interviews with 2,048 randomly selected adults across all 47 counties, and has a margin of error of ±2.18 percent.
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