The US-Israeli strikes on Iran that began on February 28, 2026, feel distant from Nairobi. They are not. Oil above $107 a barrel, fractured semiconductor supply chains, and disrupted cloud infrastructure are already working their way into the cost of doing business in Kenya, and the mechanism connecting them is artificial intelligence. This is the world’s first large-scale AI war, and East Africa is not a bystander.
US Central Command confirmed that advanced AI platforms, Palantir’s Maven and Israel’s Habsora and Lavender systems, processed satellite imagery, drone feeds, and signals intelligence in real time. In the first 24 hours alone, they identified over 1,000 targets, supporting more than 5,500 strikes overall. What once took teams of analysts weeks now takes seconds.
Proponents call this enhanced situational awareness. Critics call it something more disturbing. When AI shortens the gap between “target identified” and “strike authorized” from days to minutes, the cost of a mistake multiplies catastrophically. A strike near a girls’ school in Minab killed dozens of children. That is what AI-accelerated warfare looks like in practice: speed that outpaces human judgment, with irreversible consequences.
In civilian life, we face a slower version of the same dilemma. Loan approvals, fraud flags, hiring decisions, AI is already accelerating those cycles too. The question every boardroom now has to answer is identical to the one the battlefield is wrestling with: who is accountable when the algorithm is wrong?
In early March, Iranian-linked drone strikes hit three Amazon Web Services data centers: two in the UAE and one in Bahrain. Banking apps went dark. Payments failed. Ride-hailing and food delivery ground to a halt across the Gulf. Millions couldn’t complete basic transactions.
This wasn’t a cyberattack. It was a physical strike on digital infrastructure. Iran has explicitly signaled that US-linked IT and energy facilities are legitimate targets. For the UAE, which has built its AI ambitions on hyper-scale data centres, this changes the calculus entirely: cloud infrastructure now carries kinetic risk. Multi-region redundancy and hybrid architectures, once optional, are now table stakes.
CENTCOM’s own public statements confirm that adversaries are actively mapping critical digital infrastructure as part of their targeting strategy.
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Here’s one that isn’t making enough headlines: helium. Not party balloons, the irreplaceable coolant used in semiconductor fabrication. Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex, responsible for roughly a third of global helium production, took direct hits. Prices surged 40–100% within weeks. Combined with Brent crude above $100 a barrel, driving up the cost of powering energy-hungry data centres, the economics of the AI boom are under genuine pressure. Chipmakers from Samsung to TSMC are already feeling the pinch.
For businesses importing tech hardware, this means squeezed margins and longer lead times. For investors pouring billions into AI infrastructure, it is a reminder that supply chain concentration is a strategic liability, not an operational footnote.
None of this kills the AI dream. It matures it
The AI information environment is fracturing in parallel. AI-generated deepfakes and fabricated battlefield footage, documented by BBC Verify, have accumulated hundreds of millions of views, outpacing fact-checkers in real time. In economies where digital platforms underpin commerce and public trust, verification is no longer a media problem. It is a business continuity problem.
On supply chains, the disruption opens a real strategic window. Nations with growing tech ecosystems, renewable energy capacity, and no legacy dependence on concentrated Gulf infrastructure are well-positioned to become alternative hubs in a diversifying global AI supply chain. Gulf states, meanwhile, can accelerate regional partnerships and resilience investments rather than doubling down on exposed, centralised infrastructure.
Existing governance frameworks, including Kenya’s Data Protection Act and the UAE’s National AI Strategy, provide a foundation. But the pace of AI deployment now demands binding accountability frameworks, not voluntary guidelines. The WTO has flagged that sustained disruption in the Middle East could shave 0.5 percentage points off global merchandise trade. That is not an abstraction; it is margin, logistics cost, and hardware pricing hitting balance sheets directly.
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Three shifts have moved from “eventually” to “now.” Security must be foundational. Cloud providers in conflict-adjacent regions are no longer neutral utilities. Ethical governance must match deployment speed. Accountability frameworks need teeth, not aspirations. Supply chain diversification is no longer optional; concentration anywhere is a vulnerability everywhere.
The age of frictionless AI adoption is over. Organizations that treat this moment as a temporary supply disruption will fall behind. Those who rebuild their AI strategies around resilience, accountability, and regional cooperation will lead the way in what comes next.
The war in the Middle East has not killed the AI dream. It has forced us to grow up.
This article was written by Elvis Getugi. He is a finance and technology professional based in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, with a keen interest in ethical leadership, digital governance, and the societal impact of emerging technologies.| [email protected].
