With campaigns wrapping up on Monday, November 24, 2025, just before the by-elections on Thursday, November 27, several constituencies have become key battlegrounds in what many expect to be a tough contest.
Among the most closely watched races is the Mbeere North by-election, where President William Ruto and his former Deputy President, Rigathi Gachagua, are set to flex their political muscles.
The outcome is expected to signal political directions about how the 2027 General Election may shape up, making this contest a do-or-die political test for both camps.
If President William Ruto’s UDA candidate, Leonard Muriuki Wamuthende, who has been actively campaigned for by Embu Governor Cecile Mbarire and Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, wins the seat, it will signal that the President still commands significant support in the Mount Kenya region despite his fallout with Gachagua.
Ruto to Test Mt Kenya Influence in Mbeere North By-Elections Despite Fallout with Gachagua
On the other hand, if Newton Kariuki (popularly known as Newton Karish), the Democratic Party (DP) candidate backed by Gachagua, clinches the seat, it will be seen as a major boost for Gachagua’s political influence in the Mount Kenya region.
Such a win would suggest that the Mount Kenya voting bloc may rally behind Gachagua’s camp, regardless of who the United Opposition eventually fields, and further position him as the region’s de facto political leader.
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Another closely watched contest is in Malava Constituency in Kakamega County, where a by-election is also scheduled. Both UDA and DAP-K enjoy substantial support in the region.
The seat was previously held by UDA MP Patrick Malulu Injendi, who passed away following a short illness. President Ruto is keen to retain the seat as he seeks to strengthen his influence in Western Kenya, which he hopes will form part of his core voting bloc in 2027. This election will be a litmus test of his popularity in the region through the UDA candidate, David Ndakwa.
Natembeya Faces Off with Wetang’ula and Mudavadi in Malava Battle
During the campaigns, the Head of State deployed key political heavyweights to rally support, including his aide Farouk Kibet, National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula, and Cabinet Secretary for the Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi, leaders with a strong following in Western Kenya.
However, Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya has demonstrated equal determination, campaigning aggressively for the DAP-K candidate, Seth Panyako. Natembeya has positioned himself as the face of a new political order in Western Kenya, seeking to replace the long-standing dominance of Mudavadi and Wetang’ula.
Panyako’s campaign received a major boost after Cleophas Malala facilitated the withdrawal of DCP candidate Edgar Busiega, consolidating support behind him. Other notable leaders campaigning for Panyako include Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale and DAP-K party leader Eugene Wamalwa. The outcome of this race will signal both the future of Western Kenya’s political leadership and President Ruto’s actual strength in the region.
ODM to Test its Popularity in Kasipul Without Raila
Another hotly contested race is the Kasipul by-election, where ODM is expected to test whether it still commands grassroots support in Luo Nyanza following the passing of Raila Odinga, who enjoyed immense loyalty in the region throughout his political career.
ODM Chair and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, along with several senior party figures, have rallied behind Bopyd Were, son of the late Charles Ong’ondo Were. They have urged residents to support him, saying a victory would be a fitting tribute to Raila Odinga’s legacy.
However, ODM faces stiff competition from Independent candidate Philip Aroko, who enjoys substantial backing within the constituency. Aroko has so far received support from influential leaders such as Homa Bay Deputy Governor Oyugi Magwanga, former Nairobi Governor Evans Kidero, former Migori Governor Okoth Obado, and several UDA leaders, despite ODM and UDA being part of the broad-based government.
A major political battle is also expected in the Magarini by-election. The main competition is between the ODM party, which has traditionally been strong in this area, and the new political formation, “United Opposition,” led by the Democracy for Citizens Party and other allied parties.
ODM Seeks to Retain Magarini Seat
The mini-poll is shaping up as a high-stakes proxy war between President Ruto’s camp (supporting ODM candidate Harrison Kombe) and the opposition fronted by Rigathi Gachagua, represented by Stanley Kenga (DCP).
Kombe’s 2022 victory was nullified by the Supreme Court due to electoral irregularities. He now runs under the “broad-based government” coalition.
Also Read: New Twist as Gachagua Calls for Resignation of IEBC Vice Chair
Kenga, the petitioner who successfully challenged Kombe’s win, is now running under the United Opposition banner and was the UDA candidate in 2022.
Kilifi County is traditionally an ODM stronghold, and the party’s ability to retain the seat is being closely watched for any signs of declining influence.
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