CHAN 2024: All Possible Scenarios That Will Determine Top 2 In Kenya’s Group

The African Nations Championship (CHAN) 2024 Group A matches go down to the wire this weekend, with the final round of fixtures set to determine which two teams will advance to the quarterfinals alongside already-qualified Kenya.

As it stands, Kenya leads Group A with 7 points after three matches — two wins and one draw. Morocco and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are tied on 6 points each, with both having won two matches and lost one. Zambia and Angola are officially eliminated, with no chance of progressing.

Kenya has already secured a place in the quarterfinals, owing to a superior head-to-head over both Morocco and DR Congo, meaning they will progress regardless of the results on the final matchday.

However, the race for the second qualification spot remains open, with Morocco and DR Congo set to face each other in a decisive clash on Sunday, August 17, at the Nyayo National Stadium.

According to the Confédération Africaine de Football (CAF) regulations, when two teams finish the group stage tied on points, the first tiebreaker is the head-to-head result between them.

All possible scenarios that will determine the CHAN 2024 Group A top 2 teams

If the head-to-head match is drawn, the next determining factor is goal difference across all group matches, followed by the total number of goals scored. Currently, both Morocco and DR Congo have identical point totals and goal difference (6 points, GD +3), making Sunday’s head-to-head clash critical.

A win for either team would take them to 9 points, guaranteeing progression as the second-placed team — or potentially as group leaders if Kenya fails to win their final game.

If Morocco and DR Congo draw, both would finish on 7 points. In this scenario, the final ranking between the three teams (Kenya, Morocco, DR Congo) would be determined by points obtained in head-to-head matches among the trio.

Kenya, having already beaten both Morocco and DR Congo, would retain top spot. The second-placed team would then be decided between Morocco and DR Congo based on the head-to-head result between them — which would be a draw — so goal difference across all group matches would come into play.

If the scores are still level, Fair Play points are then used as a tiebreaker. Points are deducted based on disciplinary records as follows: one point for a yellow card; three points for two yellow cards in one match, resulting in a red card; four points for a direct red card; and five points for a yellow card followed by a direct red card.

If teams remain tied, CAF will conduct a drawing of lots to determine the final rankings.

Possibilities in quarterfinals

Meanwhile, Kenya will close its Group A campaign against Zambia on Sunday at the Moi International Sports Centre (MISC), Kasarani. Zambia, already eliminated, is at the bottom of the group.

Should Kenya win, the nation would finish with 10 points and claim top spot in Group A, securing a home quarterfinal tie at MISC Kasarani against the second-placed team in Group B — either Mauritania or Madagascar, who trail leaders Tanzania. 

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Madagascar currently sit third in Group B with 4 points from 3 matches and will play their final game against an already eliminated Burkina Faso.

Mauritania, in second place with 7 points from 4 matches, have completed all their fixtures and await the Madagascar result.

Only a Madagascar win would level them with Mauritania at 7 points. Since their head-to-head match ended 0-0, goal difference would determine who finishes second, with Madagascar edging out Mauritania if they win.

On the other hand, a draw for Kenya would see them finish on 8 points. If Morocco vs DR Congo also ends in a draw, Kenya would still finish first. However, if either Morocco or DR Congo wins, that team would move to 9 points and take top spot, pushing Kenya to second.

In the worst-case scenario, a Kenya loss combined with a win for either Morocco or DR Congo would mean Kenya finishes second in the group, forcing them to play their quarterfinal match away in Tanzania against the Group B winners.

Kenya’s historic debut at CHAN 2024 has already seen them defeat DR Congo 1-0, draw 1-1 with Angola, and edge past Morocco 1-0, placing them on the verge of finishing top of the group.

The team resumed training on Wednesday, August 14, in preparation for Sunday’s final group match, after a two-day rest following their win over Morocco.

Traffic disruption announced ahead of Zambia Vs Kenya and DR Congo Vs Morocco matches

Meanwhile, motorists have been advised to avoid using Thika Road on Sunday, August 17, during the highly anticipated match.

In a traffic advisory issued by Joseph Chirchir, Officer Commanding Traffic in Nairobi County, several key roads will be closed and diversions put in place to ease movement around the city ahead of the two Sunday fixtures.

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These include Aerodrome Road (from Madaraka Roundabout to Bunyala Roundabout), Lang’ata Road (from Madaraka Roundabout to Lusaka Roundabout), and Mombasa Road (from Lusaka Roundabout to Bunyala Roundabout). The Nairobi traffic boss provided five alternative routes for motorists plying the Thika Superhighway.

Motorists from Nairobi CBD planning to use Thika Road were advised to use the Kiambu Road at Exit 4. Those heading to Mwiki were advised to take the Ruaraka-Baba Dogo-Lucky Summer-Nairobi River route.

On the other hand, motorists heading to Nairobi from either Thika, Juja, or Ruiru will either use the Northern Bypass or Kiambu Road, as there will be a roadblock at the Ruiru interchange.

Vehicles coming from Githurai to Nairobi CBD will use the Githurai 44-Kiambu Road, while those from Nairobi heading to Kasarani Stadium without vehicle access will be required to use the service lane at Exit 7 and Exit 8.

Alternatively, motorists from Mombasa Road going to CBD will use the Likoni-Enterprise Road at General Motors and the Southern Bypass at Ole Sereni. Drivers heading to CBD from Lang’ata Road will use the Raila Odinga Road or Muhoho Road at Mbagathi Roundabout.

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