Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania are among countries expected to experience wetter-than-normal conditions over the next three months as a strengthening El Niño reshapes global weather patterns, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has said.
In its Global Seasonal Climate Update issued on July 31, the UN weather agency warned that a strong El Niño will continue intensifying during the August–October 2026 season, increasing the likelihood of above-normal temperatures across much of the world while driving major shifts in rainfall patterns.
The WMO said the Greater Horn of Africa is among the regions forecast to receive above-normal rainfall as the climate phenomenon strengthens, raising the risk of flooding in some areas even as other parts of the world face worsening drought.
“Wetter-than-normal conditions are expected across the Greater Horn of Africa; parts of Central Asia; Southern Europe; Western North America (south of 45°N); and Southeastern South America,” the WMO said.
The Greater Horn of Africa comprises Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan, Eritrea and Djibouti.
According to the agency, the strengthening El Niño is unfolding alongside exceptionally warm global oceans and an expected positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a climate pattern that typically brings warmer waters to the western Indian Ocean and cooler waters to the east.
Together, these climate drivers are expected to amplify extreme weather, including floods, droughts and wildfires, particularly around the Indian Ocean basin.
Also Read: Kenya Met Reveals When Above-Normal Rains Will Begin, Warns of Very Strong El Niño
Strong El Niño to Shape Global Weather
The WMO said forecasts from leading global climate centres indicate that sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are expected to exceed 2.9 degrees Celsius during the August–October period, confirming that El Niño is strengthening into a major climate event.
The agency added that the phenomenon is expected to push temperatures above normal across most land areas worldwide.
“A strong El Niño is developing and expected to strengthen during August–October 2026. Above-normal temperatures are expected worldwide. Rainfall patterns show a classic El Niño footprint: wetter conditions are expected in some regions, while drought risk increases in others,” the WMO said.
Besides the Greater Horn of Africa, wetter-than-normal conditions are forecast across parts of Central Asia, Southern Europe, western North America south of 45°N and southeastern South America.
In contrast, drier-than-normal conditions are expected over the Indian subcontinent, southern and eastern Australia, southern Central America, parts of the Caribbean, northwestern South America and northern Europe.
Also Read: Kenya Met Releases Timeline for Expected El Niño Rains
WMO Calls for Early Action
The WMO said the latest seasonal outlook provides governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors, including agriculture and health, with an opportunity to prepare before the expected impacts unfold.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said early climate information is only useful if it leads to action.
“This El Niño developing against the backdrop of unprecedented ocean heat and rising temperatures provides governments and communities with a window of opportunity to anticipate risks and act before impacts unfold. The decisions we make today will shape the impacts we experience tomorrow,” Saulo said.
The WMO said it is strengthening coordination with governments, humanitarian agencies and regional climate centres by providing climate information, technical support and early warning services to help countries reduce the impact of floods, droughts and other weather-related disasters.
The agency noted that while El Niño is one of the world’s most closely monitored climate phenomena, timely preparedness remains essential to protecting lives and livelihoods as the event intensifies.
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