The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) warned that the country could experience enhanced rainfall from October through December, driven by an El Niño event.
Speaking to the press on June 12, Assistant Director of the KMD, Hannah Kimani, said that the current forecast indicates an 80 percent probability that an El Niño will develop during the October-November-December (OND) rainfall season.
“We are having very high probabilities of experiencing an El Niño signal during the October, November, and December rainfall season,” she said.
KMD Warns of El Niño During October to December Rainy Season
Kimani further explained that the situation could be worsened by a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is currently neutral but is expected to turn positive from July.
She added that, combined with the anticipated El Niño signal, the two climate phenomena are likely to trigger above-normal rainfall across parts of the country, increasing the risk of floods and related disasters.
The Kenya Met Department said it will continue monitoring the evolving weather patterns and issue regular updates to guide preparedness efforts.
Flood Risks Across the Country to Be Experienced
At the same briefing, KMD Principal Meteorologist Zachary Misiani warned that Garissa and Tana River counties face a heightened flood threat, noting that the Seven Forks dams are already nearing full capacity even before the onset of the short rains.
“Water levels in the Seven Forks dams are almost at full capacity, even though we are not yet in the rainy season. There is a higher probability that overflowing water will affect communities downstream in Tana River and Garissa counties,” he said.
The department cautioned that swollen rivers could also damage infrastructure, including bridges, disrupting transport and access to essential services.
Kenya Met said it is working closely with county governments, county meteorological directors, and humanitarian agencies across all 47 counties to disseminate early warning information and coordinate response measures to reduce the impact on vulnerable communities, especially those living near rivers.
Also Read: El Niño Flood Alert: Full List of High-Risk Areas Across Kenya
Weatherman Outlines Seasonal Forecast
On June 9, 2026, the weatherman outlined the expected seasonal impacts of El Niño across Kenya and the wider East African region, warning of contrasting rainfall patterns between the June–July–August (JJA) and October–November–December (OND) seasons.
According to the department, El Niño is associated with suppressed rainfall over the western parts of Kenya during the June to August season, while the rest of the country generally experiences predominantly dry conditions.
In its June–July–August 2026 seasonal forecast, issued on May 30, 2026, KMD indicated that the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, Lake Victoria Basin, Rift Valley, and Northwestern Kenya are expected to receive near-average to below-average rainfall.
Also Read: World Meteorological Organization Warns of El Niño from May 2026
The Coast, however, is projected to receive near-average to above-average rainfall.
The forecast further shows that the Highlands East of the Rift Valley, including Nairobi, parts of the southeastern lowlands neighbouring Nairobi, and some high-altitude areas in Marsabit and Taita Taveta counties, are likely to experience occasional cool and cloudy conditions with light rains.
Most of the southeastern lowlands and the northeastern region are expected to remain generally sunny and dry, with mean temperatures projected to be warmer than average across much of the country.
KMD noted that El Niño does not occur in isolation and is closely linked to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which plays a key role in modulating rainfall patterns over Kenya.
The department said the IOD is currently neutral and is expected to remain so in June 2026, although models suggest the possible development of a positive IOD event later in the year.
A combination of El Niño and a positive IOD, it added, could significantly enhance rainfall during the October–November–December season.
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